Analysis: Political opportunism fuels rival coalition in Ethiopia’s Somali region

By Khadar M LeyliMonday May 4, 2026

Symbiotic Antagonists 

A familiar political pattern is unfolding around Somali Regional State President Mustafa Omer: longtime rivals are setting aside their own enmities for one purpose only — to attack him. What brings together this uneasy alliance is not a common blueprint for Ethiopia or for the Somali Region, but a shared determination to tarnish a leader they regard as an obstacle to their ambitions. 

This coalition of symbiotic antagonists — TPLF loyalists still bitter over their battlefield defeat, remnants of the repressive Abdi Iley era, and a disgruntled faction of the ONLF diaspora — shows how easily old enemies can become temporary partners when politics turns into a campaign of sabotage. Their preferred tactic is not argument, policy, or evidence. It is the stale accusation that President Mustafa Omer delivers “different messages for different audiences.” In reality, the charge exposes more about their own intellectual emptiness, rigid thinking, and extremism than it does about any contradiction in his politics.

The False Dichotomy

At the center of the campaign is a false choice so obvious it scarcely merits serious debate. The critics claim that a leader cannot speak for the unity of the Somali Region in Jigjiga and also speak for the unity of Ethiopians in Addis Ababa. That argument is contrived from the start, a manufactured contradiction designed to create confusion where none exists. 

Since when has regional solidarity been incompatible with national cohesion? Since when does defending the rights and dignity of one’s own community amount to betraying a larger civic project? 

The premise collapses under its own weight. Yet the coalition persists because it cannot accept that Mustafa Omer continues to command support across multiple constituencies. His appeal rests precisely on a dual commitment that the critics refuse to understand: a united Somali Region and a united Ethiopia, two goals that reinforce rather than undermine one another. 

The Coalition’s Real Agenda

If the president’s position is as clear as it appears — and if it has earned him strong backing among both his Somali base and wider Ethiopian audiences — why do these strange political bedfellows keep recycling false dilemmas?

The first reason is simple: they have no credible answer to his record. They cannot fairly challenge Mustafa Omer’s gains in security, development, human rights, freedom of speech, leadership cohesion, and public trust. So instead, they construct a distorted caricature of him, one that exists only in their imagination. The method is as old as propaganda itself: repeat the lie often enough, and some will eventually mistake it for truth. 

Second, they are irritated that Mustafa refuses to camp out on either side of the political fault line they prefer to invent — Somali versus Ethiopian. In fact, the two identities are not mutually exclusive. They wanted him either to sever himself from his Somali roots and history, making him easier to isolate from the people he leads, or to retreat into a narrow ethnic nationalism disguised as “ethnic rights” and reject the civic nationalism and inter-ethnic harmony required for state and nation-building in modern Ethiopia. That same logic also feeds the disinformation they are spreading about alleged “Alshababa links” and “Greater Somalia” ambitions, especially as the 7th National Elections approach. 

Third, their own political relevance depends on leaving the past unresolved. TPLF loyalists would prefer a weak and divided Ethiopia; the remnants of Abdi Iley’s network would like a return to predatory, clan-centered rule; and the ONLF diaspora faction appears more comfortable with romantic insurgency than with accountable governance. 

President Mustafa’s vision

Mustafa has long made his position clear on both Somali Region and Ethiopia. From the earliest days after he took responsibility for leading the region in August 2018, he said there is no contradiction between the ethnicity and nationality — citizenship — of the people of Somali Region. He has described himself as a believer in federalism while rejecting the hateful and divisive politics TPLF used as a tool to hold on to power. 

He has repeatedly argued that the rights of ethnic groups in Ethiopia must be protected, but that national unity and harmony among the federation’s constituent members deserve equal weight. 

He has also consistently spoken out against the historic marginalization and persecution of Somalis under previous regimes, stressing the need for justice and redress. At the same time, he has warned against allowing any people to remain trapped by past grievances, urging Somalis in Ethiopia to look ahead and pursue their rights within an inclusive, democratic federal state: “From sulking on the periphery to claiming the center,” as he often puts it. 

That outlook rests on a straightforward principle of dual loyalty: to the Somali people who elected him and to the Ethiopian federal project that secures their place in a diverse nation. 

In Jigjiga, he has tried to mend the deep wounds left by Abdi Iley’s brutal rule and bring together clans that were intentionally driven apart. In Addis Ababa, he has emerged as an outspoken defender of federalism, ethnic equality, and cooperative governance. Those positions do not clash; they form the backbone of a consistent political philosophy. 

A leader who cannot unite his own regional base has little authority in national politics, and one who ignores the national framework cannot deliver durable gains for his region. Mustafa Omer appears to understand that balance. 

His opponents, and the TPLF figures backing them, thrive on clan division, regionalism without patriotism, and grievance without solutions.

For each of these groups, a Somali Region that is internally cohesive and fully integrated into Ethiopia is a threat. Unable to defeat Mustafa Omer in practice, they turn instead to rhetorical sleight of hand, inventing contradictions where none exist and hoping repetition will create credibility. 

The Futility of False Choices

The effort to trap President Mustafa Omer in an either-or framework — for Jigjiga or for Addis Ababa, but never both — belongs to a political era that has already passed. Ethiopia’s future lies with leaders who understand that regional strength and national unity are not rivals, but allies. 

The coalition of opposites may continue to chase imagined contradictions, but the exercise will only deepen its own irrelevance. The people of the Somali Region, and Ethiopians more broadly, can see the alliance for what it is: a desperate gathering of political losers bound together by their refusal to accept a changed reality.

As the Somali Region advances under capable leadership and Ethiopia continues building its federal democracy, the old guard’s false choices will likely fade into the background — remembered as a final burst of politics that chose division over development and rhetoric over results. 

President Mustafa Omer stands on the right side of history, not in spite of his message of dual unity, but because of it.

Khadar M Leyli is a political commentator based in Jigjiga, Somali Regional State of Ethiopia. He can be reached at [email protected].

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Hiiraan Online’s editorial stance.