Abiy Ahmed Confronts Regional Challenges as Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia Unite in Opposition to Ethiopia
NAIROBI, Kenya – A recent summit with Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia in attendance has birthed a coalition nicknamed the ‘axis against Ethiopia,’ marking an intense regional shift that edges Ethiopia into unfamiliar territory.
Over the past few years, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia has been wrestling with internal and external upheavals. Domestically, his administration faces significant headwinds due to regional unrest, notably the Tigray conflict, which upends his governance.
On the international front, Abiy, a Nobel Laureate from 2019, has drawn suspicion over initiatives to annex portions of Somalia. His recent sea corridor agreement with North Western State of Somalia stirs the pot further.
If greenlit, the pact would grant Ethiopia a 20-kilometer path to the Red Sea, fostering a military base and port for North Western State of Somalia’s recognition as an independent entity. However, Somalia and its allies frown upon this strategic leap.
Furthermore, tensions rise with Egypt over the Grand Renaissance Dam. It is seen by Cairo as a threat that siphons essential water resources, impacting Sudan and Egypt downstream.
A statement from leaders, Isaias Afwerki (Eritrea), Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (Somalia), and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (Egypt), endorsed the reinforcement of Somalia’s defense capabilities to safeguard territorial seas and lands.
The agreement outlines cooperative efforts to bolster Somali governmental capabilities to tackle “multifaceted internal and external challenges,” involving the Somali National Army’s training and enhancement.
The trio stressed the “unwavering respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial completeness of regional nations.” Notably, Egypt and Eritrea have been instrumental in training Somali forces.
Adding complexity, Egypt recently delivered a significant military aid package to Somalia, inclusive of hefty artillery and armored units. This was part of a defense agreement cemented in August 2024, raising Ethiopian and North Western State of Somalia eyebrows.
The discourse also touched upon pressing matters, such as “Sudan’s crisis and subsequent regional impacts” and issues around “security and collaboration among Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab littoral states,” as noted in the joint release.
The communiqué commended Eritrea and Egypt’s roles in fortifying stability in Somalia, with Egypt offering to deploy peacekeeping contingents to aid Somalia’s tranquility.
The gathering closed with a pact to form a “Joint Tripartite Committee of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia’s Foreign Ministers,” paving a path for comprehensive collaboration, thereby sidelining Ethiopia from regional dialogues.
Previously, Ethiopia wielded significant sway in the region’s peace and stability matters, including a deployment of 5,000 soldiers combating Al-Shabaab and spurring state progression in Somalia.
Despite Ethiopia’s previous influence, Somalia has negated its participation in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), slated to replace the outgoing African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) come January 2025.
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