Ethiopia’s ruling prosperous party on Saturday was declared the winner of last month’s national election in a landslide, guaranteeing a second five-year term for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The Ethiopian National Electoral Commission said the ruling party won 410 seats out of 436 in the federal parliament, which will see dozens of other seats left vacant after a fifth of constituencies did not vote due to unrest or logistical reasons. Ethiopia’s new government is expected to form in October.
Abiy on Saturday praised the result. He described the June 21 vote as a “historically inclusive election”, in a statement on Twitter, adding: “Our party is also pleased that it has been elected by the will of the people to administer the country.”
The vote was a major test for Abiy, who came to power in 2018 after the former prime minister resigned amid widespread protests. Abiy oversaw dramatic political reforms that led in part to a Nobel Peace Prize the following year, but critics say he is returning to political and media freedom. Abiy has also taken massive international criticism for his handling of the conflict in the Tigray region, which has left thousands of people dead.
The June vote, which had been postponed twice due to the COVID-19 pandemic and logistics issues, was largely peaceful, but opposition parties rejected harassment and threats. No vote was taken in the Tigray region.
Abiy has hailed the election as the country’s first attempt at a free and fair vote, but the United States has called it “significantly flawed”, citing the imprisonment of certain opposition figures and insecurity in parts of Africa’s second most populous country.
The leader of the party’s largest Ethiopian citizen for social justice, Birhanu Nega, lost while the opposition parties won only 11 seats. The Ethiopian Citizens’ Party for Social Justice has submitted 207 complaints to the electoral body over the vote.
Popular opposition parties in the Oromia region, the Oromo Federalist Congress and the Oromo Liberation Front in Ethiopia’s largest federal state, boycotted the election, saying their candidates had been arrested and offices vandalized. The ruling party ran alone in several dozen constituencies. The most competitive regions were Amhara, the country’s second largest, and the capital Addis Ababa.
The head of the Electoral Commission, Birtukan Mideksa, said in Saturday’s announcement that the vote was being held at a time when Ethiopia was experiencing challenges, “but this voting process has guaranteed that people will be guided by their votes.”
“I want to confirm that we have made a credible choice,” she said in a statement issued by the Associated Press (AP).
Turnout was just over 90% among the more than 37 million people who had registered to vote.
The Prosperity Party was formed after the disbandment of Ethiopia’s former ruling coalition, which had been dominated by Tigray’s politicians. Disagreements over this decision signaled the first tensions between Abiy and Tigray leaders that eventually led to the conflict in the region in November.
Although Abiy hinted in 2018 that Ethiopia will limit a prime minister’s condition to two, it is not clear if he will act on it.
On election day, “no serious or widespread human rights violations” were seen at stations observed by the state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC). Nevertheless, the EHRC noted in a preliminary report that some constituencies experienced “wrongful arrests”, threatening voters and “harassment” by observers and journalists. The EHRC also said it had observed several murders in the days before the Oromia vote.
The opposition national movement for Amhara lodged a complaint with the Electoral Commission over “serious problems” during the vote.
“Many of our observers were beaten and chased by government party militias,” senior party member Dessalegn Chanie told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Dessalegn is one of the opposition politicians who has so far won a seat in the federal parliament, although he said that the party would decide to take its seat only after the election board has decided on its complaints.
Even a small amount of opposition representation in parliament would be an improvement and could avert future instability, says Addisu Lashitew of the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“People, especially young people, need to be heard, so they should have a voice in the political process,” Addisu said. “Although it does not always succeed in influencing political decisions, it is important that they are heard in themselves.”
Integrating opposition votes into formal political processes means they are less likely to be “radicalized” or stimulate a large-scale protest movement, he added.
The Prosperity Party “should not read too much” about the results given the “deep political divisions” that remain, Tegbaru Yared, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, wrote this week. Instead, the party should “focus on stabilizing the country, stopping intercommunal conflicts, tackling inflation, engaging the opposition and launching a comprehensive national dialogue,” Tegbaru wrote.
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