Carney wins majority government in Canadian special elections

Mark Carney has won a parliamentary majority for Canada’s Liberal government, handing the prime minister a stronger mandate as he confronts the trade war launched by US President Donald Trump.

The result caps a remarkable stretch in Canadian politics, during which several opposition lawmakers crossed the floor to join Mr Carney’s Liberals. The party said on X that it captured two Ontario districts, known in Canada as ridings, in special elections.

The victories came in University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, two ridings with long Liberal histories. Votes are still being counted in a third contest.

The latest gains lift Mr Carney’s Liberals to 173 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

Over the past year, the Liberals had depended on case-by-case backing from the Conservatives to push through economic and trade legislation.

Mr Carney, who entered office without prior political experience, has drawn international praise for trying to rally middle powers together

The outcome also tightens his hold on power through at least 2029, when Canada is next scheduled to hold a national election. The last federal government to command a majority in Parliament was Justin Trudeau’s, from 2015 to 2019.

Mr Carney’s standing has been bolstered further by a series of defections, with five opposition lawmakers joining the Liberals over five months.

Among governing parties in Canadian history, only those led by John A. Macdonald, the country’s first prime minister, and Jean Chretien have attracted more defectors.

‘Large Liberal tent’

Last Wednesday, veteran Conservative politician Marilyn Gladu crossed over to Mr Carney’s government, saying Canada needed “a serious leader who can address the uncertainty that has arrived due to the unjustified American tariffs”.

Ms Gladu, a former chemical engineer, has previously faced criticism for promoting unproven scientific treatments during the Covid-19 pandemic, opposing a ban on conversion therapy and suggesting the military should be used to shut down Indigenous-led protests against oil pipelines. She thanked Mr Carney for welcoming her into “the large Liberal tent”.

The University-Rosedale seat had been held by former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who resigned after taking up a role as economic development adviser in Ukraine.

The Liberals also said they had won a special election to fill the seat vacated by former Liberal lawmaker Bill Blair, who stepped down after being named ambassador to the United Kingdom.

In the third riding, Terrebonne in Quebec, the Liberals remain locked in an extremely tight battle with the Bloc Quebecois. The party won the seat by a single vote in the last federal election, but Canada’s Supreme Court later overturned that result because of a misprint on a voter’s envelope.

Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department at the University of Western Ontario, said Mr Trudeau had pulled the party leftward and placed emphasis on reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, minority rights and immigration. Mr Carney, by contrast, is a more centrist leader facing a narrower and more urgent set of challenges.

“He is focused on helping Canada survive the economic turmoil, not remaking society,” she said.

“When we’re in tough times like this, there are different calculations being made.”

Recent polling from Nanos shows that more than half of Canadians prefer Mr Carney as prime minister, while just 23% chose Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.

Before Mr Carney became leader of the Liberal Party last year, Mr Poilievre had been projected to win the next election by more than 20 points.

“Carney has done a fairly good job showing Canadians he can handle Trump,” said Mr McDougall of the University of Toronto.

“He’s shown Canadians he’s a competent manager of the economy and the country,” he said.

“And so far Canadians have not been overly impressed by the alternatives.”