There are only three matches and four teams left until Euro 2020 after a gripping set of quarter-final matches.
It’s time when Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Performs AI team using Opta data, tries to identify the most likely champion.
This model estimates the probability of outcome (win or loss) for each match using odds market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performance. It takes into account the strength of the opponents and how difficult each team’s upcoming matches look like.
The final stages of the tournament have since been simulated 40,000 times, analyzing each outcome, giving a percentage to assign to each of the remaining eight teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.
In France and Belgium, the favorites have bowed in subsequent rounds, so who is leading the way now?
The last four – and their title jumps – are ranked below …
Denmark has reached the semi-finals of the Euro for the first time since 1992 / Naomi Baker / Getty Images
Denmark has returned to the semi-finals of a major tournament for the first time since they were European champions in 1992, but this campaign has in many ways been even more impressive than the shock triumph.
This is the first time Denmark has won three matches in a row in euros and eleven goals represent its highest ranked championship to date.
But still, they must surely raise their level again from beating Russia, Wales and the Czech Republic to overthrow England.
Denmark shoots 32.6 percent to overcome the three lions and reach the final. It would not be the first time they upset the odds at this tournament.
Spain needed penalty to beat Switzerland / Kirill Kudryavstev – Pool / Getty Images
Although in the same quarter of the draw as world champions France, Spain was not expected to make it that far. But Switzerland dumped Les Bleus and then came up scorching against Luis Enrique’s side.
Italy’s next opponent is clear favorites in the last four, but after being more convincing against tougher opposition.
Spain only have a 34.6 percent probability of making the final, but they will back off if they can stick to the Azzurri as far as a penalty shootout.
No team has won as many shoot-outs as Spain, with one of their four successes against Italy on the way to taking the title in 2008.
Kane did twice when England flashed past Ukraine / Alessandra Tarantino – Pool / Getty Images
England have speed on their side on their way to their third European Championship semi-final against Denmark at home at Wembley.
The 4-0 quarter-final victory against Ukraine was their biggest in the euro and their biggest in the knockout phase of a major tournament and scored as many goals in that match as in their previous four matches in this tournament.
It is also crucial that the three lions do not allow. They have kept seven consecutive clean sheets in all competitions, most recently released 662 minutes ago against Poland in March.
Jordan Pickford has five clean sheets in five matches at these finals – no goalkeeper has ever held more in a single edition of the competition.
He would simply settle for England taking advantage of his 67.4 percent chance – the best of the last four – to reach a first final since the 1966 World Cup.
Italy referred to Belgium to reach semis / Markus Gilliar / Getty Images
It should come as no surprise that Italy topped the charts after breaking all sorts of records to reach this stage.
The Azzurri are unbeaten in 32 in all competitions – their best ever – and have won 13 in a row, including five straight in these finals. Roberto Mancini is only the second coach, after France’s Michel Hidalgo in 1984, to win his first five European Championship matches.
In fact, including qualifiers, Italy has won 15 Euro games in a row.
And the 1968 champions know a thing or two about the later stages of these tournaments and make the semi-finals 12 euros or World Cups – second only to Germany (20) among European countries.
Italy have also won their last four last four bands, which explains their shot of 65.4 percent in a final place.
