For Hakim El Karoui, assistant researcher at the Montaigne Institute, the European Union must integrate the Maghreb countries into its recovery plan in order to avoid an economic crisis with catastrophic consequences.
For researcher Hakim El Karoui, “what we do not see is that today we are intertwined with the Maghreb. And in a way, the great European border is moving from the Mediterranean to the Sahara. ”
According to him, European leaders have not yet integrated this new geopolitical situation. What happens on one side of the Mediterranean has almost immediate consequences on the other.
“When we look at the economic intertwining that exists between the Maghreb countries and the European countries, especially the three from the south, Spain, Italy and France, we do not understand that the European recovery plan – EUR 750 billion, half in grants and half in loans – “Because they are economically linked to European activity and at the same time, their economic, social but sudden political stability can have an immediate impact on what is happening in Europe,” the researcher explains.
Risk of social destabilization
Hakim El Karoui dissects in its report the economic situations in three countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia. He concludes that these countries have neither budgetary resources nor the opportunities to create monetaryly than the countries of the old continent. However, the economic shock following the pandemic poses a risk of social destabilization.
“These countries are middle-income countries, they cannot do as the European countries, that is, create unlimited currency. And so they are today with 8%, 10%, 12% of GDP less in their economy. Europeans should both continue their support for the area (which exists), but understand that there is a cyclical phenomenon here and that these countries must be helped to overcome this cyclical phenomenon with donations. And donations are 1% to 2% of the total amount of stimulus packages and this roughly corresponds to the size of the economies. It is less a matter of pleasing the Maghreb countries than responding to the interests of Europeans. “
A destabilization of the Maghreb economies due to the crisis would pose political, migrant and ultimately security risks for Europe, Judge Hakim El Karoui said. The donation policy he advocates is not insurmountable for the rich European economies.
Between them, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia need a maximum of around € 20 billion to get out of the current bad economic situation. In addition, Europe would send a strong signal to these partners, who are increasingly being courted by emerging powers, led by China and Turkey.
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