Somalia plans for all Ethiopian forces to exit the nation by late 2024, coinciding with the African Union Transition Mission’s mandate wrapping up in December, as per Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali.
In a recent broadcast on national media, Ali mentioned Ethiopian soldiers would not join the new African Union forces, being organized with international allies, to safeguard vital areas in Somalia starting from January 2025 for a one-year period.
Ali’s remarks arise amid worries from Somali regional officials who suggest that without Ethiopian troops, al-Shabab insurgents may gain an upper hand.
Ali emphasized that Mogadishu’s decision to exclude Ethiopian troops stems from a disputed January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and North Western of Somalia, a self-proclaimed Republic.
North Western of Somalia, a fragile breakaway province in the far northwest, has sought independence since 1991, governing from Hargeisa. The African Union opposes changes to colonial borders, hence not acknowledging North Western of Somalia’s autonomy.
The MOU grants Ethiopia leasing privileges along the Red Sea coast in North Western of Somalia, allowing the construction of a naval base in exchange for diplomatic recognition.
Mogadishu staunchly opposes the MOU, viewing it as a breach of national sovereignty.
“Our stance on ENDF’s (Ethiopian National Defense Forces) role in post-ATMIS times is unambiguous,” Ali tweeted. “As long as Ethiopia infringes on our sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence, it remains unfit as an ally in advancing area peace and security.”
Presently, Ethiopia has thousands of troops operating across Somalia, largely in Southwest, Jubaland, and Hirshabelle states, distant from North Western of Somalia. Some form part of the ATMIS mission while others are there via bilateral security pacts.
Officials in Jubaland, where Ethiopian soldiers are positioned, voiced concern over Ali’s announcement.
“This only bolsters Kharwarij,” remarked Jubaland Deputy President Mohamud Sayid Aden to VOA’s Somali Service, referencing the term Mogadishu uses for al-Shabab rebels.
Calling it “a tough situation,” Aden continued, “It’s not something that stakeholders can easily agree on.”
Southwest State of Somalia Security Minister Hassan Abdulkadir Mohamed told VOA that the Southwest region supports the presence of Ethiopian forces.
“Removing ATMIS from the country requires a discussion; no unilateral decisions should be made,” he stated. “Southwest welcomes Ethiopian troops’ continued stay.”
Attempts to get a comment regarding Ali’s statements from Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nebiyu Tedla were unsuccessful.
Some observers believe Mogadishu’s stance brings challenges for both Somalia and the African Union.
“Unclear if this decision reached the AU officially for them to act accordingly,” noted Horn of Africa security analyst Samira Gaid to VOA’s Somali Service.
“The AU now faces the task of mediating between member states over the post-ATMIS issue, unable to resolve it during the MOU declamation,” she added. “This could signify heightened tensions after the MOU went public six months ago.”
Gaid is skeptical if Mogadishu and AU officials can organize replacement forces in time.
“The government hinted at existing TCCs (Troop Contributing Countries) stepping in,” she commented.
“Yet, whether current TCCs will configure themselves within the remaining window, establish operations in Bay and Bakool amid possible political challenges — and settle overarching post-ATMIS matters like resourcing, mandate, and numbers — remains uncertain.”
Gaid also noted national security and defense is a federal responsibility in Somalia, and federal authorities might not fully grasp the potential fallout from a sudden Ethiopian troop exit.
Both AU and Somali officials confirmed 2,000 peacekeepers will leave Somalia this month, followed by another 2,000 by the end of September, leaving approximately 9,500 AU forces to integrate into the new mission commencing January.
Final troop numbers under the fresh mission could reach up to 12,000, as per an AU insider, preferring anonymity due to ongoing discussions. Somalia wants current TCCs — Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, and Djibouti — to continue in the new mission.
