NAIROBI, Kenya – The conflict in the Tigray region may have been planned by the Addis Ababa authorities, a senior Finnish official said, long before the Ethiopian National Defense Forces even. [ENDF] were deployed to the area after the attack on the Northern Command.
For nearly eight months, the ENDF reinforced by Eritrean troops have descended on the Tigray region, triggering a humanitarian crisis that has drawn international attention. Thousands of Tigrayans are believed to have been killed in what some call genocide.
But Pekka Haavisto, Finland’s foreign minister, says Ethiopian leaders hinted at plans to eliminate the Tigrayans, an ethnic group in northern Ethiopia, who have since withdrawn from government after the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
Addressing the Finnish parliament, Haavisto, who was previously the European Union’s envoy to Addis Ababa, gave a detailed briefing on the current situation in Ethiopia, particularly in the Tigray region. He said the conflict could continue, adding that violence against women in Tigray “is something that has never existed before”.
The minister said that in February he had two days of intensive substantive meetings with Abiy Ahmed and key ministers on the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Tigray where thousands have died and millions are starving. The worst famines have the potential to strike.
“When I met the Ethiopian rulers in February, they used this kind of language, that they are going to destroy the Tigrayans, they are going to wipe out the Tigrayans for 100 years and so on,” Haavisto said, giving an overview on the conflict described as “genocide”.
After the EU pressured Abiy, he said, the prime minister began to use hostile language towards the West and launched a campaign of hatred. and so on, “he adds.
Haavisto says the Ethiopian crisis is linked to the situation in Somalia and a bizarre new triangle that is not friendly but rather challenges regional cooperation. Somalia is experiencing an almost similar political crisis, which almost escalated after Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo tried to extend his tenure by two years.
“This is the reason why we put a lot of pressure on Farmaajo to hold the elections and resume the electoral process,” he adds. The minister also praised the role of Prime Minister Mohamed Roble in leading the electoral process and is optimistic that this would shine a light on the relations between Somalia and Kenya.
Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, has been accused of a plot to exterminate the community of Tigray, which he says is opposed to his leadership. He has not yet sanctioned the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Ethiopia despite calls from the international community.
But Ethiopia’s foreign ministry dismissed Haavisto’s statement as “irresponsible and non-diplomatic” while giving a breakdown of what it believes to be unwarranted defamation by the Finnish minister.
His statement clearly shows his lack of context and understanding of Ethiopia. Without a doubt, his self-confidence to claim his understanding of the country and its people on two visits is not only flawed, but also part of a colonial mindset, ”MFA said.
Ethiopia, however, pledged to continue working with the European Union, but insisted that the organization consider working with impartial people who understand what is happening in the country rather than ‘rumors’. .
The Ethiopian and Eritrean governments have both criticized international calls for a ceasefire, dialogue or a negotiated outcome to the Tigray conflict, saying this inappropriately puts the TPLF and the Ethiopian state on an equal footing.
Maintaining engagement with the international community on Ethiopia’s Tigray-focused stability, the government of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has diverted attention from the country’s broader political challenges as the twice-delayed elections approach. next week, said Jason Mosley is a senior associate researcher. with the Conflicts, Peace and Security area of SIPRI, working in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
Conflict more than Tigray crisis
Mosley further notes that the problems facing Abiy Ahmed’s government go beyond the current crisis in the Tigray region, arguing that the socio-economic conflict sparked by the current administration, coupled with ethnic cleansing, could escalate into a high-level crisis in the Horn of Africa.
In particular, he says, the conflict in Tigray has dramatically accelerated changes in Ethiopia’s political economy, with elites vying for the spaces created by the destruction of the TPLF’s economic infrastructure and the relocation of businesses to much. positioned associated with the Endowment Fund affiliated to the TPLF for the Rehabilitation of Tigray [EFFORT].
Changes within the former ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front [EPRDF] the coalition saw the TPLF sidelined by the cooperation between the Oromo and Amhara coalition parties to elect Abiy as president [and thus prime minister] in 2018. The erosion of TPLF’s position triggered a new phase of competition for access and opportunity.
Widespread episodes of violence and conflict, including inter-communal violence and attacks on local minorities, have also distracted observers from the economic competition of elites. The spread of violence outside of Tigray has remained significant and similar in distribution, both before and since the outbreak of the Tigray conflict in November 2020.
Although Abiy rose to power as an “Oromo” politician in the context of Ethiopian federal politics, following widespread protests that affected much of the Oromia region, his more centralized view of the nation-state was not suitable for Oromo nationalist politicians and established Oromo opposition parties, he says.
The Oromo Liberation Army [OLA] was also declared a terrorist organization in May, alongside the TPLF. The OLA, or “Shene”, has clashed repeatedly with the national army and regional Oromo security forces over the past three years, including the days before the conflict began in Tigray.
Leaders of the main Oromo opposition parties have been in prison since mid-2020, following widespread violence following the assassination of popular Oromo singer and activist, Hachalu Hundessa. Some of those facing the wrath of Abiy’s administration include his clan member Jawar Mohammed.
If Abiy and the Prosperity Party capture enough constituencies in the Amhara and Oromia region, as well as in significant parts of the southern nations, nationalities and peoples region, this will ensure continued oversight at the federal level, adds the analyst.
The withdrawal of the TPLF from the national scene in Tigray was cemented – and the stage is set for the conflict – in November 2019, when Abiy pushed for the merger of the constituent parties and allies of the EPRDF into a single Party of the prosperity, leaving the TPLF in opposition in the Federal Parliament for the first time since its inception.
For its part, the TPLF’s uncompromising approach to its marginalization from national politics, including increasingly belligerent rhetoric and unilateral actions in 2020, has helped to sow the seeds of the current conflict and appears to limit appetite for de-escalation in Ethiopia. more generally.
External engagement
The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Tigray could have been avoided without the leadership failures in Mekelle and Addis Ababa since 2018. However, Ethiopia’s partners risk exacerbating the Tigray tragedy and increasing the situation. instability in Ethiopia, if the objective of external engagement is not broadened. to reflect the widespread challenges facing the country.
The country’s moment of transition has been lost, but partners should focus on how to get Ethiopia’s elites to move away from zero-sum politics – most likely a form of truly national dialogue, as has been seen recently. discussed Emebet Getachew, Mehari Taddele Maru and Yohannes Gedamu. , among others.
While speaking of an immediate moral imperative and the plight of civilians in Tigray, the imposition of sanctions is likely to see Ethiopian elites strengthen their current positions, especially in the context of tensions surrounding the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
In the short term, the best hope is that after designing the conditions to ensure that the Prosperity Party remains in power after the election, Abiy and the Ethiopian elites will then be open to compromise. In the meantime, a more confrontational stance on the part of Ethiopian donors will only frustrate those seeking to defuse the crisis in Tigray, Mosley says.
The UN is under pressure to discuss the current conflict in the Tigray region, but it has yet to hold a formal meeting in the Security Council on the issue. Already, the African Union has formed a task force that will assess the situation in the region before delivering a report that will be used to make a decision at the General Assembly meeting.
AXADLETM
