Al-Shabab Undermines Somali Advances, Forms Alliance with Houthis

The Houthis have targeted or threatened U.S. Navy and commercial vessels over 190 times in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 19, 2023, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh disclosed to reporters on Monday. Two assaults on Thursday hit the Palauan-flagged, Ukrainian-owned, Polish-operated bulk cargo ship M/V Verbena, leaving one crew member severely injured, while another crew member remains missing following a separate attack on the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned M/V Tutor on Wednesday.

“The Houthis claim they’re supporting Palestinians in Gaza, but they’re endangering the lives of unrelated individuals,” Singh stated.

Guled Ahmed, a scholar specializing in the Horn of Africa at the Middle East Institute, explained that the Houthis, with Iranian backing, aim to forge a new front in the Indian Ocean, facilitating the transfer of advanced missiles and drones to al-Shabab. He noted that the Houthis have already dispatched three engineers to al-Shabab in southern Somalia to assist in crafting advanced weaponry and bombs for the al-Qaida affiliate.

The U.S. has long been striving to choke off the influx of arms into Somalia. In November 2022, the U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on eight individuals and a company linked to a protracted scheme to smuggle weapons worth millions from Yemen to Somalia. This smuggling enterprise intended to bolster the Islamic State’s affiliate in Somalia but, according to officials, it also provided arms to their al-Qaida-linked contender, al-Shabab, courtesy of Iran.

Al-Shabab’s Advance

Senior U.S. defense officials highlighted that the Somali National Army’s campaign in central Somalia had put al-Shabab on the defensive for the last two years.

“But recently, al-Shabab has managed to reclaim all those lost territories over the past six months,” one official revealed.

Ahmed pointed out that the Somali National Army struggles with ineffective military strategies, inexperienced commanders in the field, and corrupt leadership that includes pilfering food rations, military gear, weapons, and ammo to sell in the black market.

Al-Shabab’s numbers have surged again, reaching between 12,000 and 13,000 fighters due to robust financing and aggressive recruitment following a diplomatic accord between Ethiopia and North Western of Somalia earlier this year.

“They leveraged this to enlist many who harbor resentment towards Ethiopia into al-Shabab’s fold,” a senior U.S. official said.

Another high-ranking U.S. defense official mentioned that al-Shabab’s resurgence signals the necessity for continued support even after the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) concludes.

“They require every bit of assistance to tackle the looming security threats,” the second official remarked. “We’re hitting a pivotal juncture.”

Reporting by Jeff Seldin and Harun Maruf.

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