Editorial | Somalia-UAE Rupture Demands Restraint, Responsibility, and Regional Solidarity
Somalia’s decision to sever ties with the United Arab Emirates lands at a perilous moment for a nation still recovering from more than three and a half decades of conflict, displacement, and institutional fragility. Millions of Somalis depend—directly and indirectly—on regional economic and humanitarian links for their livelihoods and survival. That is the central fact that must guide every actor’s next move.
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This diplomatic rupture cannot be allowed to cascade into a broader economic shock that punishes ordinary people. The UAE, especially Dubai, functions as a commercial gateway for Somali traders, businesses, and financial institutions. In 2024, bilateral trade exceeded $2.2 billion, a figure that speaks to how deeply intertwined Somalia-UAE relations have become in commerce and connectivity. Investments at the ports of Bosaso and Berbera, valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars, have built jobs, logistics capacity, and regional ties that serve the public interest beyond shifting political currents.
Keep the focus on people, not politics
Humanitarian considerations must come first. Retaliatory measures—whether commercial, financial or bureaucratic—that disrupt trade, remittances, employment, or assistance will hit families, not politicians. Somali households rely on Gulf-linked markets and networks for basic goods, transportation, services and income. That reliance cannot be wished away, and it should not be weaponized.
To that end, the UAE should exercise restraint and avoid steps that could intensify the hardship facing Somali traders, workers and communities. The imperative is to ring-fence humanitarian and economic lifelines from geopolitical friction, recognizing that Somalia’s current political and economic conditions do not allow for further external shocks.
Resist the pull of regional rivalries
Somalia’s partners across the Gulf—particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar—should similarly avoid drawing the country into wider regional rivalries. Somalia is a neighbor, a Muslim nation and a member of the Arab League. Its people seek partnership, not polarization. Differences among brotherly Gulf states are best resolved through dialogue, not projected onto fragile states least able to absorb the consequences.
There is opportunity, even in this moment of strain, for regional leadership. Showing solidarity with the Somali people means preserving economic linkages, respecting domestic sensitivities and steering clear of interventions that transform Somalia into a proxy arena. What Somalia needs most is space to rebuild—reliably, steadily and without imported crises that deepen domestic fault lines.
Stop celebratory brinkmanship
It is striking, and troubling, to see some political figures celebrate the diplomatic split while ignoring the human cost. Applauding a rupture that threatens the flow of goods, jobs, remittances and services displays a disregard for everyday realities. In Somalia, where private resilience often fills the gaps left by fragile institutions, the most vulnerable are the first to feel the chill when markets seize up, fees rise, or paperwork snarls movement and commerce.
Statesmanship requires seeing beyond the day’s point-scoring to the longer horizon of public welfare. The test is not rhetorical victory; it is whether policy decisions leave ordinary citizens more secure tomorrow than they are today.
Governance at home remains decisive
The Federal Government, whose current term is set to expire in the coming months, has a narrow window to steady the domestic arena. That work starts with political agreement, credible governance and a renewed push for national reconciliation. Protecting sovereignty is not only a matter of statements and stances abroad; it is built through political consensus and strengthened institutions at home. Without that internal cohesion, external pressures—economic or diplomatic—will be felt more sharply and managed less effectively.
The path forward requires discipline. Somalia’s leaders should prioritize the mechanics of daily statecraft that improve lives: clear rules for commerce, efficient services, and a political climate that rewards compromise. That agenda does not grab headlines, but it is the groundwork on which sovereignty rests.
Immediate priorities for safeguarding livelihoods
- Preserve humanitarian channels: Ensure that assistance and vital services remain insulated from political escalation.
- Protect remittance flows and financial linkages: Keep lifelines open for families who depend on support from abroad.
- Maintain commercial continuity: Avoid steps that impede trade, logistics or market access, particularly through Dubai as a regional hub.
- Safeguard employment and mobility: Minimize disruptions that could affect workers whose income supports extended households.
- Stabilize strategic infrastructure: Sustain operations and investment confidence at Bosaso and Berbera to protect jobs and regional connectivity.
These are not concessions. They are minimum guardrails to keep a fragile recovery from skidding into crisis.
A responsible way out
None of this negates legitimate diplomatic grievances or the need for principled foreign policy. It simply recognizes that responsible statecraft calibrates pressure with precision, contains spillover risks and remains accountable to citizens’ basic needs. Somalia’s partners should meet this moment with restraint and compassion. Somali leaders should meet it with a pragmatic commitment to stability, consensus and rebuilding.
At stake is not just the tenor of Somalia-UAE relations, but the everyday functioning of a regional economic ecosystem that feeds households, sustains small businesses and underwrites recovery in a country that has known too many shocks. A rapid descent into economic disruption would be a strategic failure—avoidable, foreseeable and certain to hit the wrong people hardest.
The wiser course is clear: de-escalate, protect the public, and keep the door open to dialogue. Somalia’s neighbors and partners should act with solidarity in deeds, not just words. And Somalia’s leaders should focus their energies on the hard, necessary work of building a state that delivers peace, opportunity and dignity to its people.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
