Ireland may be heading into a spell of wetter, windier weather as the strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean raises the prospect of more intense rainfall and storms across the coming months, Met Éireann has warned.
El Niño is a major natural climate event that drives up global temperatures and compounds the warming already caused by human activity.
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It develops when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, setting off changes in atmospheric winds, temperatures and rainfall patterns around the world.
Met Éireann said the event could become the strongest El Niño recorded in more than 100 years.
While the phenomenon increases the threat of drought in regions such as southern Africa and north-east Australia, north-western Europe, including Ireland, is expected to face wetter and more unsettled conditions.
El Niño typically develops once every two to seven years.
“The sea surface temperatures are well above average and this increases the moisture content in the atmosphere for any low pressure systems and rainy weather coming towards us which can increase the intensity of any rainfall events,” Climatologist at Met Éireann Paul Moore said.
Climatologist at Met Éireann Paul Moore said that water in the Pacific could heat up more than 3C in the coming months
El Niño is already driving a severe drought across Central America.
The Panama Canal, a crucial trade route linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans that carries about 5% of global maritime trade, said it would reduce the number of ships allowed through next month as water levels continued to fall.
From 3 September, daily vessel numbers will be cut because of the lack of rain, the Panama Canal Authority said.
With global temperatures continuing to rise, forecasters have said next year could become the hottest on record.
“Globally human-caused climate change has already warmed the atmosphere by 1.4 degrees approximately and this El Niño will bump that up again next year making 2027 likely the warmest year on record surpassing 2024 which is currently the warmest year on record,” Mr Moore said.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at Britain’s national weather agency told the BBC: “We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees – that is unheard of in modern climate records.”
El Niño is defined by water temperatures reaching at least 0.5C above the baseline. Although it is a naturally occurring cycle, scientists say climate change is amplifying its effects.
The Met Office said in a blog that a record-strength El Niño would be “adding to the stresses of climate change” after a summer marked by heatwaves across Europe.
The Panama Canal’s shipping restrictions, introduced next month as drought worsens under the influence of El Niño, will reduce daily traffic from the current level of 36 ships to 34, before falling again to 32 from 15 September, the agency said.
A large cargo ship carrying containers seen using the Panama Canal (file image)
Central America is in the throes of a severe drought driven by El Niño, a weather pattern that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall.
The Panama Canal carries around 40% of US container traffic.
Rainwater collected in two artificial lakes supplies the canal.
The canal operator said “lower than forecast rainfall in the canal’s watershed” had made action necessary to protect the waterway’s “long-term sustainability”.
Additional conservation steps have already been introduced, including a reduction in the maximum draft — the depth of a vessel below the waterline — permitted for the largest ships.
On Wednesday, the government of Honduras placed 80% of the Central American country under drought alert.
According to the Climate Brink dashboard, which is based on data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific temperatures are currently about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average.
The dashboard also compiles forecasts suggesting El Niño could reach a peak anomaly of 3.9C this November, significantly higher than the anomaly of more than 3C recorded in 2015.
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