Kenya warns EU: don’t look away as Al‑Shabaab claws back ground in Somalia
When focus drifts, violence fills the gap
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NAIROBI — Kenya’s foreign minister is urging the European Union to keep the spotlight trained on Somalia’s Al‑Shabaab as the group steps up attacks across East Africa, warning that dwindling international attention could hand the militants a dangerous opening.
“There is growing international fatigue because of other conflicts and a shift in focus. The international community’s support has depreciated significantly, and countries like Kenya have been left to carry the heavy load in this fight,” Musalia Mudavadi told reporters, encapsulating a concern shared by diplomats and defence officials from the Horn of Africa to Brussels.
Kenya’s plea comes as Nairobi shoulders an outsized share of the burden. Some 3,000 Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) personnel are currently serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), according to government figures cited by local media. Their presence is intended to blunt Al‑Shabaab’s push inside Somalia; in response, the militants have increased attacks inside Kenya, striking towns in the northeast and even the capital.
Funding shortfalls and a precarious timeline
The AU stabilisation effort is facing a severe funding gap. The AUSSOM budget is estimated at roughly $166.5 million a year, but pledges so far amount to only around $16.7 million, officials say. That shortfall has coincided with growing international pressure for troop drawdowns and a wider retrenchment of overseas military commitments by Western capitals.
As Cyprus prepares to assume the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2026, Nairobi is publicly pressing the bloc to keep Somalia and the fight against Al‑Shabaab high on its agenda. For Kenya, and for neighbouring states battered by spillover violence, the stakes are existential: a withdrawal of well‑trained foreign contingents risks creating security vacuums that the militants exploit.
Why Al‑Shabaab matters beyond Somalia
A regional threat with global implications
Al‑Shabaab is more than a local insurgency. Since rising to prominence in the aftermath of Somalia’s state collapse in the 1990s and 2000s, the group has shown it can strike across borders — staging high‑profile attacks in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, and using human trafficking, charcoal and extortion networks to finance operations. Its resilience has repeatedly exposed the limits of international counter‑terrorism efforts that manage crises rather than resolve root causes.
For Kenya, the militants’ campaign has exacted a heavy toll: lives lost, businesses disrupted and a chilling effect on tourism and inward investment in parts of the country. Attacks in Nairobi and the coastal city of Mombasa reverberate in boardrooms and markets as swiftly as they do in neighbourhoods that live with the threat every day.
What has changed in global priorities?
Diplomats point to a crowded foreign policy calendar. The war in Ukraine, the Israel‑Hamas conflict, instability in the Sahel and a growing preoccupation with strategic competition between the United States, China and Russia have pushed long‑running crises — like Somalia’s — farther down some capitals’ lists.
That shift is not merely bureaucratic; it has tangible consequences. Funding, training, intelligence-sharing and even diplomatic attention have all been stretched thin. As a result, regional partners that once relied on steady Western backing increasingly find themselves improvising responses to security threats.
On the ground: weariness and resilience
Communities caught in the middle
Across northeastern Kenya, pastoral communities and small towns now juggle life under heightened alert: roads slowed by checkpoints, markets closed on days after attacks, and funeral gatherings that have become a regular part of the calendar. The human cost is underlined in statistics — dozens killed in recent raids and ambushes — and in quieter ways: children missing school, traders cancelling shipments, families deciding whether it’s safer to move inland.
Kenyan military leaders argue that their presence in Somalia is not a mission of choice but of necessity. They contend that cross‑border operations, intelligence cooperation and sustained pressure inside Somalia are essential to prevent Al‑Shabaab from consolidating control over territory and networks.
The risk of localised solutions and broader instability
Relying heavily on regional forces without commensurate international support carries consequences beyond operational stress. It can strain state resources, deepen political friction at home, and, if missions falter, allow militant groups to regain lost ground — a lesson echoed in other theatres where international attention has shifted.
Where do we go from here?
Kenya’s appeal to the EU raises uncomfortable questions about the limits of international solidarity in an era of competing crises. European capitals must weigh the immediate costs of deeper involvement against the geopolitical price of withdrawal: a stronger Al‑Shabaab that exports instability across the Horn, threatens maritime routes in the Indian Ocean, and deepens humanitarian crises in Somalia — with spillover effects for migration and regional trade.
For Nairobi, the calculus is stark. Can Kenya sustain a long‑term security commitment in Somalia without more predictable financing, logistics and political support from partners? For Brussels and other donors, the decision is whether to treat Somalia as a forgotten front or as a strategic issue whose neglect could sow larger headaches.
As global attention ricochets between headline conflicts, the question facing leaders in Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Brussels is both practical and moral: who pays for stability when the crowd turns away? And what price will the region pay if the answer is silence?
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
