Donors and Troop Providers Anxious About Egypt’s Emerging Role in Successor to Atmis Mission

In the whirlwind of regional politics, the involvement of Egypt in Somalia’s security landscape has sparked a fair amount of jitters among nations and international partners engaged in the African Union peacekeeping mission there. Egypt, flexing its military muscles, seems keen to play a pivotal role in Somalia as the African Union’s existing mandate wraps up. But oh, the plot thickens like a good mystery novel…

Security wonks hint that this new player on the block—Egypt, wielding its influence by backing Somalia—has given sponsors the heebie-jeebies. Meanwhile, Somalia appears to have shown Ethiopia the exit door in line for what comes after the current peacekeeping operations vacate the premises. The suspense is enough to turn international friends into frenemies.

Amidst this chaos, the AU and UN strategists are busy hashing out a post-AU Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis) report, adding more ingredients to this proverbial stew. By mid-November 2024, they’ll present their findings, planning to launch the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom) at the dawn of 2025.

There’s noticeable hand-wringing among financiers about Egypt swaggering into Aussom, potentially usurping Ethiopia’s long-standing place in the peacekeeping echelon. Given the Nile tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, the situation feels like an explosive powder keg ready to go off.

Some troop-contributing countries (TCCs) are raising their vocal cords, wary of the structure-disruptive theatrics Egypt might bring to Aussom. These TCCs, including Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, have steadfastly offered their soldiers to Somalia over the years.

Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s State Minister for International Affairs, insisted the mission’s skeletal structure will retain its original form—likely giving Egypt some side-eye about altering the choreography.

Ugandan boots were the first to stomp through Somali terrain back in March 2007. Since then, Burundi arrived fashionably late in December, and Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia joined the peacekeeping soiree in 2011, 2012, and 2014, respectively.

“What’s Egypt got that we don’t know?” one might wonder. Oryem expressed the mix of curiosity and skepticism from some TCCs; Egypt’s desire to be in on the action now raised questions.

Egypt’s ambitions to oversee Somalia’s security structure for at least half a decade reveal a wish to deploy a hefty force. Half of their 10,000-strong deployment would snuggle comfortably under the Aussom umbrella, while the rest freelances on an independent mission under an auspicious deal inked in August with Somalia’s president, who had Cairo’s hospitality.

Astonishingly, Egypt’s offer to send 5,000 troops to Aussom represents nearly half of the envisaged personnel complement, leaving Egypt as the heavyweight contender in the new diplomatic showdown. The forthcoming operation aims to pack military might and shield civilians from the menacing threat posed by al-Shabaab zealots, with still plans whirling in the airspace of United Nations approval.

In a report from the Institute for Global Studies (IGS), Egyptian officers initiated the first step of their independent mission, landing in Somalia with the urgency of a thriller on August 27. Planeloads of personnel and gear touched down, spreading through Somalia like pieces on a tactical map.

Egypt’s significant commitment as part of Somalia’s military chessboard may very well re-shape military alliances, forewarns the IGS. Ethiopia perceives Egypt’s role as provocative, with claims that Egypt seeks to unravel Somali stability to achieve its grand regional strategies.

With the mandate decision looming over us, the UN Security Council is expected to green-light Aussom’s scope just before the holidays. However, apprehension over Egypt’s entrance stirs the brewing regional pot.

A recent AU-UN delegation rounded the diplomatic bases in Somalia, engaging with various stakeholders crafting Aussom’s rollout. As Rashid Abdi—a voice in the Horn of Africa analysis scene—tweeted, Egypt’s intended involvement stirs discomfort.

Ignoring the EU, who’s been the fairy godmother of peacekeeping in Somalia with copious expenditures, might spell mischief. Brussels stood as the moneybags since the mission’s inception, footing substantial bills to keep the AU peacekeeping show rolling.

Euros flowed into Amisom like clockwork until the peak of deployment boasted 22,000 uniforms at attention. The EU says sure, let Egypt sit at the table, but it’s imperative that any partner stays laser-focused on dismantling al-Shabaab’s ambitions.

Just as it seems funds will rain from heaven, there’s chatter about grabbing the headache pill. Funding persists as a perennial thorn, with Brussels whistling a tune for an encore of transparent donor burden-sharing.

Struggles over the Somali-Ethiopian MoU regarding a North Western State of Somalia port deal exacerbate tensions, potentially complicating the fight against al-Shabaab, becoming the sob story of the region.

Dr. Korir Sing’oei of Kenya voiced frustrated tones about the tempestuous dance between Ethiopia and Somalia, seeking a peaceful way forward to combatning extremist forces. Diplomacy is the name of the game, he suggests, as Kenya’s at-the-ready to help pen a harmonious chapter.

Expert minds suggest al-Shabaab’s shadow grows amid the Egypt-Ethiopia-Somalia drama. An environment soaked in squabbles could see al-Shabaab plunge the place into chaos.

The thrum of diplomatic spats doesn’t deter Ethiopian troops, who’ve stood by since the tempest started but admit it’s drained energy from tackling al-Shabaab sprightliness.

Some in Somalia leap to the microphone, reframing al-Shabaab as a national crusader rather than an enemy. It’s a twist resonating with local dissent against Ethiopia. Maybe strange bedfellows share similar enemies?

The States reckon the neighborhood feud coiled up collaboration on al-Shabaab with considerable alarm among policymakers in Washington. General Michael Langley acknowledged operational pullbacks amid the fray, hoping differences will dissolve as diplomacy unfolds.

Despite ongoing operations, Ethiopia insists al-Shabaab won’t be rooted from anywhere without settled neighboring issues. Ethiopia remains a cornerstone in this regional puzzle, and any lapse allows adversaries a chance to reshape the board.

A protest in Somalia reveals public discontent over deals involving Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia, challenging this contentious relationship amid swirling dissent.

The Atlantic Council posits that the rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia hinges heavily on strategic interests, including squabbling over the MoU.

Addis Ababa decries Egypt’s move, emphasizing Ethiopian blood spilt in Somalia’s defense and seeing replacement by Egypt as a cold shoulder moment.

For Cairo, dominating the local scene sends a signal, pressuring Ethiopia at the regional poker table. A less cooperative environment weakens counterterrorism efforts, opening the region to al-Shabaab’s machinations.

Empty spots left by Atmis stir concern for leaving Somalia’s security stretched thin. A new African Union force could address gaps, but Western whispers express scepticism about a shaky mission architecture and potential funding quibbles.

The UN Security Council grappled with the regional tensions and tsuris over the monetary model in a symphony of diplomatic exchanges.

US diplomat Robert Wood highlighted the vital need for sealing an Atmis successor, balancing focus with regional security considerations.

Diplomatic initiatives must be front and center, steering clear from derailing Somalia’s necessary efforts to counter al-Shabaab’s scourge.

Calls rang out for funding Aussom under a tried-and-true UN setup, reducing the heavy lifting shouldered by generous external donors.

Atmis’s past reliance on donor contributions highlighted the importance of sustained support, essential to the success of any new missions under the African Union umbrella.

The suit-and-tie chorus sang that a new mission needs a clear playbook, fleshed out by troop contributor feedback and a concrete exit sign gleaming ahead.

Ethiopia’s vigilance over Egypt’s engagement underscores the need for clear lines and careful choreography in the plan for regional stability, fearing arms might find dark alleys to travel.

Countries like Uganda, Kenya, and Djibouti reserved spots for Aussom, conditional on a thumbs-up from Somalia, adhering to an African Union blueprint.

Somalia, chatting with AU and UN counterparts this week, advocated for Resolution 2719 footing the bill, although Ethiopia still feels the door slammed shut.

Somalia’s apprehension about Ethiopia’s motives rears its head, accusing Ethiopia of masking sinister intentions of occupying Somali spheres, claiming illegal deals abound.

The drawn-out battle in Somalia requires more than liberated areas. They need steadfast forces, enduring a stretched presence of foreign allies.

James Swan of the United Nations, acting messenger in Somalia, outlined a medley of challenges—offering cautionary tales of humanitarian needs and expansion efforts.

“We implore Ethiopia and Somalia to keep diplomatic engines running to avoid perilous escalations,” Swan incites, emphasizing substantial drawbacks for regional composure post-Atmis.

Edited by: Ali Musa

Axadle international–Monitoring