Nine Months On: The Regional Impact of the Ethiopia-North Western State of Somalia Agreement
The Horn of Africa continues to grapple with aftershocks from Ethiopia’s agreement with North Western State of Somalia in January. This pact, which bestowed Ethiopian naval units access to North Western State of Somalia’s coastline, has sparked strife and intrigue across the region. In a twist, Hargeisa claims Ethiopia is mulling over acknowledging North Western State of Somalia’s boundaries, stirring the pot further.
Fast forward nine months, and tensions escalate with new forces entering the fray, like Egypt making chummy deals with Somalia. These alliances include arms and military gear, with a shipment landing on August 27. Tale as old as time, foreign involvement in the Horn seems ready to light a powder keg, risking regional discord.
It’s been a tumultuous nine months.
Back in 2018, we saw Ethiopia and Somalia easing tensions, courtesy of PM Abiy Ahmed’s diplomatic ballet. Yet the latest memo, starkly opposed by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as an infringement on Somali lands, shattered almost all prior amity.
Somalia’s reaction was bold. Mohamud branded Ethiopia an adversary akin to Al-Shabaab. By annulling this agreement with new legislation, Mohamud swirled diplomatic tempests. In these nine months, anti-North Western State of Somalia rhetoric soared. The MOU nonetheless trudges on, solidifying ties between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia, with embassies and security accords constantly in motion.
The last months have marked further disturbances. Turkey fortified its bond with Somalia, forming a defense pact seen by many as counterbalancing Ethiopian naval dreams. Despite Turkey’s deployment stoking North Western State of Somalia’s ire, tensions simmer. Meanwhile, diplomatic chit-chats in Ankara fizzled out, despite high hopes.
Starting back in January, Egypt vociferously condemned the agreement. President el-Sisi stood by Somalia, vowing to shield its security. With notable meetups between Mohamud and Egyptian mandarins, Egypt has vocally supported Somalia since the MOU’s inception. Come August, Somalia and Egypt inked their own security pact.
Why is Egypt leaning into this alliance with Somalia? Maybe shared Islamic ties or the urge to tango with the trade winds of potential prosperity entice them. Yet, acrimony towards Ethiopia, simmering since 2011’s Dam drama over the Nile, plays a starring role. As Egypt frets over its water lifeline, channels of pressure on Ethiopia grow. With a flick of a pen, Egypt sounds alarms to the UN, spotlighting concerns around this hydro-electric dam’s expansion.
A shadow looms: Al-Shabaab’s menace endures. Mohamud, declaring all-out war on the faction last year, witnessed their rebound post-MOU. It’s said they’ve pocketed heaps of cash and rally disaffected Ethiopians to their cause. February saw them blitz an Emirati base, while March brought havoc upon Somali military posts. June whispers told of potential armament collaborations with the Houthis, and a ghastly August bombing in Mogadishu shocked the region.
As the AU mission to combat Al-Shabaab winds down, plans for a revamped mission, AUSSOM, tread uncertain waters—Ethiopia’s boots left out by Somalia’s request unless MOU scratches are redressed. Egypt, meanwhile, stands ready to contribute a formidable force.
This slapdash approach may seem like betrayal after Ethiopian troops invested nineteen years into regional stability. Meanwhile, Egypt seizes chances to sway the region, sowing consternation as political fractiousness grows. This discord dilutes anti-terror collaborations, creating turf lush for Al-Shabaab’s nefarious plans.
Peering into the crystal ball…
The path forward seems cloaked in tension. This wobbly Ethiopia-North Western State of Somalia contract could make or break the setup, especially with Ethiopia’s gamble with a state lacking global recognition. Sure, a bounty may await—like enhanced trade or boosted reputation—but sensible routes beckon. In conflict-prone regions like Amhara and past missteps in Tigray, Abiy craves a naval win. Djibouti dangles new prospects, offering port access as an enticing alternative.
If Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia don’t mend fences, their troops might soon meet eye-to-eye on opposite sides. Even a tiny faux pas might escalate into unwanted confrontations, perhaps even sparking wider hostilities. Such conflicts have a troubling history of spreading proxy battles, reminiscent of Sudan’s ongoing stir.
Continued instability could empower Al-Shabaab to ramp up mischief. With a weakened collective grip, the first nine months of 2024 saw brazen attacks on civilians tally 127 incidents, a grim sign of things possibly falling through the cracks. If Ethiopia and seasoned forces stay out, the institutional savvy might go missing. Al-Shabaab’s ties with the Houthis weaken the region’s unity, posing global risks.
Looking to tomorrow…
Not all hope should be dashed by prevailing gloom. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia might walk back threats, hashing out solutions in Ankara. Should those positive outcomes unfold, regional prospects could bloom. But the narrative remains fluid, and players keen on the Horn’s destiny should watch closely as events unfold.
At last, disunity in these parts spells missed opportunities. It is here, within the turmoil, where the chance to realize the Horn’s untapped potential lies dormant. Restoring peace, quelling extremism, and navigating food and energy dilemmas are the backbone of regional progress. Mobilizing the Red Sea’s political and economic opportunities implies unity, not divisions.
In the past ten years, middle-power dynamics have surged globally. The Horn of Africa echoes examples of how unchecked rivalry becomes a breeding ground for regional strife.
Maxwell Webb, an observer of the intricacies within the Horn and Middle East, coordinates leadership shoots for the Israel Policy Forum’s IPF Atid. His keen insights shed light on this complex geopolitical tableau.
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
