Egypt and Eritrea Discuss Potential Military Partnership Amidst Regional Strain
Plans are brewing to safeguard Red Sea shipping routes disrupted by attacks from Iran-backed insurgents in Yemen.
In a significant moment, Ethiopia’s Premier Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki shared an emotional embrace after signing a historic truce in 2018. Reuters
Egypt and Eritrea are contemplating a military partnership and intelligence exchange to reinforce their already strong bond, insiders say.
According to sources, the agreement would detail measures to protect Red Sea shipping, disturbed by assaults from Iran-backed rebels in Yemen, who acted in solidarity with Palestinians amidst Israel’s prolonged conflict in Gaza over the last 11 months.
Egypt is also mulling over mediating the long-standing hostility between Asmara and Tigray separatist rebels in Ethiopia. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front represents a formidable challenge to Ethiopian leader Abiy Ahmed’s reign.
Abiy Ahmed has been a thorn in Egypt’s side due to his firm stance in countless unsuccessful dialogues about the colossal Nile dam Ethiopia is constructing. Cairo perceives this dam as a threat to its crucial share of the river’s water. Simultaneously, Addis Ababa accuses Egypt of backing factions aiming to unsettle Ethiopia.
The dialogues between Egypt and Eritrea come on the heels of an unexpected visit by Egyptian intelligence head Gen Kamal Abbas and Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty to Asmara last weekend. They conferred with Eritrea’s long-reigning leader, Isaias Afwerki.
The Foreign Ministry mentioned on Saturday that Abbas and Abdelatty delivered a message from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, focusing on “strengthening and advancing bilateral relations across all sectors.”
“They also absorbed President Afwerki’s insights on the Red Sea developments and the essential conditions to restore normal maritime shipping and global trade through Bab Al Mandeb,” referring to the vital strait linking the Red and Arabian seas.
The Egyptians also heard Afwerki’s views concerning challenges in the Horn of Africa and strengthening security and stability, the ministry noted.
Collectively, Egypt and Eritrea oversee roughly 5,000 km of Red Sea coastline, including Egypt’s Suez and Aqaba gulfs and Eritrea’s hold over 355 islands. Egypt governs the northern Red Sea, encompassing the crucial Suez Canal, while Eritrea is strategically near Bab Al Mandeb strait.
Over the past decade, since Mr. El Sisi came to power, Egypt and Eritrea have fostered close relations. President Afwerki has met with the Egyptian president multiple times, the latest being in Cairo in February, just three months following a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“Egypt’s chief aim in the region is to counter Ethiopian influence and exert pressure on Abiy Ahmed’s administration,” one insider shared. “Enhancing cooperation with Eritrea is a significant leap forward.”
A military pact with Eritrea would mark the latest in a series between Cairo and nations within the Horn of Africa, East Africa, or the Nile basin, including Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, and Somalia.
These agreements are largely perceived as tactics to pressurize Addis Ababa to be more amicable in its Nile dam conflict with Egypt.
The most recent military pact between Egypt and its southern neighbors was penned last month with Somalia. Under this agreement, Egypt airlifted weapons, military gear, and troops to Somalia, incensing Ethiopia, which warned this move might destabilize the Horn of Africa and vowed not to remain inactive.
In contrast, Eritrea won its independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a prolonged civil war. Although they’ve since made peace and united against Tigrayan rebels between 2020-2022, the tension remains.
Somalia’s current conflict with Ethiopia revolves around a preliminary deal by Ethiopia with North Western State of Somalia, aiming to lease coastal land for possible independence recognition from Somalia. Somalia perceives this agreement as an attack on its sovereignty and vows to obstruct it by any means necessary.
“Somalia and Ethiopia harbor deep-seated animosity,” Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Mohammed Omar said to Al Jazeera TV.
When questioned on Somalia’s response if Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia proceed with their deal, he remarked, “That would be tantamount to a war declaration.”
Somalia has threatened to expel around 10,000 Ethiopian troops stationed in Somalia as part of the African Union’s peacekeeping force if the agreement isn’t voided.
Egypt intends to seek approval from the African Union to join a new peacekeeping force in Somalia, requiring Somalia’s consent as the host nation.
This could escalate already brewing tensions. The 17-month-old war in Sudan has already displaced over two million people. Ethiopia is grappling with intensifying ethnic divides, while Somalia continually battles threats from the militant group Al Shabab.
