Addis Ababa (AX) — Ethiopia has openly raised eyebrows with the United States regarding the looming possibility of Egyptian soldiers being stationed in Somalia. This concern comes hot on the trail of the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which will wrap up at the close of 2024. Things aren’t exactly cozy between Ethiopia and Somalia these days, as both nations have been building their security rapport with Egypt, causing a bit of a row.
The spat kicked off earlier this year when Ethiopia inked a deal with Somaliland, a self-declared republic that Somalia still sees as its own turf. Somalia’s federal government wasn’t too jazzed about this and reacted by sealing its own defense pact with Egypt. Ethiopia, seeing Egypt as a major competitor, didn’t take this development lightly and started to fret over Somalia’s new chummy ties with Egypt.
Things got even more heated when Egyptian military planes touched down in Mogadishu, reportedly carting in military assistance, according to some sources via Reuters. Momentarily, Ethiopia’s concern spiked over the potential presence of Egyptian troops in Somalia after ATMIS’s curtain call, due at the end of next year.
In an effort to keep things from boiling over, a U.S. delegation helmed by Special Envoy Mike Hammer landed in Addis Ababa to chew the fat on regional security matters with Ethiopian bigwigs, including Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie. Ethiopia clearly stated its distaste for any foreign soldiers, especially Egyptian, setting foot in Somalia after ATMIS wraps up. The mission, crucial in stabilizing Somalia, hands over the baton to a new African Union operation, AUSOM, in early 2025.
Details about AUSOM, like who’s footing the bill and which countries are pledging troops, remain as clear as mud. It’s expected that Somalia and the African Union will hand over a detailed plan to the United Nations in October for approval.
Local Ethiopian media buzzed with reports that Addis Ababa is calling for a de-escalation, with Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie hammering home the importance of dialing down regional tensions. Ethiopia’s relentless opposition to Egypt’s growing footprint in Somalia frames this ongoing drama, especially considering the pressure Ethiopia faces over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile.
Mohamed Mukhtar, a keen regional analyst, chimed in on the BBC, suggesting that Ethiopia’s diplomatic play might be a smokescreen to divert from its internal headaches by spotlighting regional friction. Mukhtar also hinted that the U.S. envoy’s real task was focused more on Ethiopia’s commitments under the Pretoria Agreement with the Tigray region, rather than the hullabaloo over Somalia and Ethiopian relations. Mukhtar argued that Ethiopia’s jitters over Egyptian military presence in Somalia are largely a storm in a teacup, given there’s zero intel on Egyptian or other foreign troops setting up shop there with UN blessings.
Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre weighed in, assuring everyone that no country had knocked on their door wanting to deploy troops in Somalia. “We haven’t been approached by any nation to station their forces in Somalia,” Barre clarified. “As a sovereign state, while we have the liberty to seek aid from Arab nations, it doesn’t imply we are inviting foreign militaries into Somalia.”
Two rounds of talks to iron out the kinks between Somalia and Ethiopia have hit a wall so far. The duo is set to convene again in Ankara later this week, aiming to scrape together a diplomatic resolution.
