Will Egypt Steer Somalia’s Peacekeeping Journey?
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NAIROBI, Kenya – As the calendar inches towards the expiry of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in December, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Egypt is mounting its troops for AUSSOM, the new mission slated for the region. This signals the dawn of a strategic plan to bolster peace and stability in Somalia, a land of enduring strife.
In a communique rolling out from the recent Tripartite summit, Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea collectively nodded to the roadmap for Egypt’s upcoming role, despite the regional storm clouds, stirred by the long-standing disputes involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia.
“The sovereign right of the Federal Republic of Somalia to specify the mission’s makeup, actions, and timeframe is affirmed, along with the endorsement and welcome of Egypt’s offer to contribute soldiers to the AUSSOM mission,” states the announcement.
Egypt’s decision, much to the chagrin of Ethiopia, situates it at the heart of this transitional phase. The Egyptian government has already sent arms to Somalia twice under a newly inked defense accord. They justify this as an initiative to bolster the Somali National Army (SNA) and enhance stability.
Some observers see Egypt’s actions as an attempt to counterbalance Ethiopia’s vigorous geopolitical pursuits. Ethiopia’s recent military agreement with North Western State of Somalia—a self-declared autonomous region of Somalia—heightens the regional stakes and secures 20 kilometers of Red Sea access for a future military base and port, offering recognition of North Western State of Somalia’s sovereignty in return.
These Ethiopian maneuvers have nudged Somalia into alliances, notably with Egypt and Turkey. Ahead of deploying its forces, Egypt has armed Somalia; meanwhile, Turkey’s naval fleets navigate towards the Somali shores, raising regional tensions.
Ethiopia’s critique is clear: the arms supplied by Egypt might deepen Somalia’s security issues. Historically, Ethiopian forces have played a crucial role in battling Al-Shabaab under the African Union’s mantle.
Concerns over the Egyptian military presence in Somalia echo loudly from Ethiopia. Yassin Ahmed, the head of the Ethiopian Public Diplomacy Institute in Sweden, points out on Ethiopian state media that “Egypt’s lack of experience and its past missteps in peacekeeping missions make its Somalia venture seem bound for failure. Instead of fostering division, Egypt should collaborate with Ethiopia to safeguard regional stability.”
For its part, Somalia is clear-cut in its stance: Ethiopian forces won’t be part of AUSSOM. Somalia maintains it remains the ultimate arbiter of which nations contribute to its security efforts.
With troops edging closer to Somalia, Egypt also grapples with Ethiopia over the contentious Nile River water sharing. The Grand Renaissance Dam, sanctioned by Ethiopia, has substantially disrupted downstream agricultural activities, casting a shadow over food security in Egypt.
Hussein Sheikh Ali, the National Security Advisor of Somalia, sees Egypt’s involvement as a welcoming gesture. He underlines Somalia’s commitment to safeguarding its territorial sanctity through robust partnerships with aligned nations in the face of rising regional threats.
“This milestone grants Somalia the remarkable opportunity to uphold its national and territorial interests. Moreover, it allows us to embody the ideals of justice, security, and freedom that resonate with the global community,” voices Ali.
Whether Ethiopia will fulfill Mogadishu’s wishes by completely withdrawing its troops by year’s end remains a question. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud vows to guard Somalia’s sovereignty by courting cooperation with nations sharing similar visions.
AXADLETM
