Why Egypt is involved in Ethiopia-Somalia conflict

CAIRO, Egypt –

The Egyptian government finds itself tangled in the row between Somalia and Ethiopia, stirring unease in the Horn of Africa. This region is currently grappling with a brewing crisis and its potential fallout, desperately seeking viable resolutions.

Northward Over the Weekend:

Egypt decided to send more military aid to Somalia. Officials claimed this was in line with a defense pact between both nations. This transfers and the country’s looming presence in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has disrupted the calm.

Analyzing the Motivations:

Though Egypt frames its actions as supportive, experts argue there might be deeper strategies at play. The bone of contention between Egypt and Ethiopia is the Grand Renaissance Dam project. Egypt fears this dam will siphon off vital Nile River water downstream. Somalia, however, accuses Ethiopia of encroaching on its territory. This follows Ethiopia’s agreement with North Western State of Somalia, a self-declared independent region that Ethiopia is keen to recognize.

Strategic Interests and Real-World Players:

Analysts opine Egypt’s maneuvers have strategic undertones, as reported by Addis Standard. Asrat Birhanu, a hydroponics researcher, remarked, "Egypt’s goal seems to be less about helping Somalia and more about balancing Ethiopia’s regional sway." He further believes Egypt’s military partnership with Somalia is a "geopolitical strategy to curb Ethiopia’s influence amid the Nile water tensions."

Diverse Perspectives:

Moustafa Ahmad from the United States Institute of Peace suggests Egypt’s actions are driven more by its frictions with Ethiopia than by Somalia’s plight, which is a member of the Arab League. "Egypt’s main ambition is to isolate Ethiopia rather than constructively contribute to Somali security,” he comments. The standoff over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Ethiopia’s relentless filling of the dam has significantly upped the domestic pressure on Cairo.

Risks and Realities:

International Relations Professor Federico Donelli from the University of Trieste emphasizes that Egypt’s engagement is both strategic and opportunistic. However, he cautions, "Egyptian forces might encounter more vulnerabilities than anticipated."

Regional Reactions:

The situation has inflamed tensions in the region. Ethiopia remains adamant that nothing will deter it from its participation in AUSSOM. Somalia refuses Ethiopia’s involvement, accusing it of territorial aggression.

Ethiopia’s Stance and Regional Dynamics:

Ethiopia positions itself as a key security and development partner for Somalia, highlighting its role in promoting stability. This sentiment resonates with residents of the Southwest state, who recently protested calls for Ethiopian troop withdrawal.

Beyond Borders:

Alongside Ethiopian forces, troops from Kenya, Djibouti, Burundi, and Uganda have been instrumental in neutralizing the Al-Shabaab threat. The Somalian government states that the group has lost crucial towns and villages over the past two years, thanks to these efforts.

AXADLETM.