KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda plans to withdraw its troops from Somalia after nearly two decades on the front lines of African Union peacekeeping, a move that could reshape security calculations in the Horn of Africa and test hard-won gains against Al-Shabaab.
Gen. Wilson Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda’s Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, said in a post on X on Sunday that the country’s military mission in Somalia “has officially ended” and that preparations are underway for a full pullout. “After 19 years in Somalia, we plan to completely withdraw from that country very soon,” he wrote, without offering details or a timeline.
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Uganda is the largest troop contributor to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), fielding an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers. Its forces have guarded some of the country’s most vital infrastructure, including Aden Adde International Airport, the Port of Mogadishu and other strategic sites in the capital, while also providing senior command leadership across the mission.
The statement from Kampala lands at a sensitive moment for Somalia and the African Union. No formal schedule for Uganda’s departure has been announced, and neither the Somali federal government nor the AU has said how a drawdown would be managed or what it might mean for AUSSOM operations. Any rapid exit risks creating security gaps in areas where Ugandan troops have anchored layered defenses and provided logistical backbone.
Uganda was the first nation to deploy under the AU mission in 2007, laying the groundwork for multinational operations that pushed Al-Shabaab out of central neighborhoods in Mogadishu and gradually expanded government control in parts of south-central Somalia. Over the years, Ugandan contingents have paired combat operations with training and support to Somali security institutions — efforts seen as critical to the country’s long-term stabilization.
The potential drawdown also intersects with intensifying financial strain on AUSSOM, whose current mandate began Jan. 1, 2025. The mission is contending with budget shortfalls after reductions in European Union support and a suspension of U.S. funding over burden-sharing concerns, leaving the African Union scrambling to cover operational costs and arrears owed to troop-contributing countries.
Analysts warn that Uganda’s departure, if not carefully sequenced and backfilled, could embolden Al-Shabaab to escalate attacks in Somalia and possibly mount cross-border operations. The insurgent group has historically probed lines of control during periods of transition, targeting government offices, urban centers and AU positions with bombings and hit-and-run assaults.
Key questions now center on timing, coordination and continuity. It remains unclear whether Uganda will stage a phased withdrawal, whether other AUSSOM contingents can assume responsibility for facilities such as the Mogadishu airport and port, and how quickly Somali forces can absorb additional duties without stretching their capabilities.
For regional partners, the stakes are immediate: preserving security gains in Mogadishu, protecting critical infrastructure and maintaining pressure on Al-Shabaab leadership and logistics. For Somalia’s government, the moment underscores the need for predictable funding, sustained international backing and steady progress on security-sector reforms to avoid losing ground as foreign troops step back.
Uganda’s Ministry of Defense did not release further details on the timing or scope of the withdrawal. AUSSOM and Somali officials have not publicly commented on the announcement.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
