MOGADISHU — Hunger is surging across Somalia as four consecutive failed rainy seasons collide with steep reductions in humanitarian funding, pushing millions toward acute food insecurity, according to a new analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
The report estimates 4.8 million people faced Crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity in January, with that figure projected to jump to 6.5 million between February and March — nearly double the number recorded a year ago. Aid groups say the trend signals a rapidly worsening situation as families head deeper into the long, punishing Jilaal dry season.
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Malnutrition indicators are deteriorating alongside the hunger surge. The IPC warns that more than 1.8 million children under five are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition during 2026. Several regions have already surpassed emergency thresholds, underscoring the strain on health systems and the urgency of scaling up nutrition services.
Across Puntland State, North Western State of Somalia, and central and southern Somalia, the prolonged drought has gutted pastoral and agricultural livelihoods. Deepening water scarcity, livestock deaths and failed harvests are intersecting with rising food prices to erode household incomes. Many families report selling off their remaining animals and cutting daily meals to cope. In conflict-affected areas, insecurity is further restricting humanitarian access at a time when needs are expanding.
The crisis is starkly visible in everyday choices. “Before the drought became severe, our animals were healthy and strong,” said Hawo Mohamed Jama, a mother in central Somalia. “Now they are weak and dying. There is no grass or water. We fear losing everything.”
Conditions on the ground reflect the data, aid workers say. “Across the areas where we work, our teams and partners are seeing animal herds decimated and children showing visible signs of wasting. We are also hearing of some families walking up to 30 kilometers in desperate search of water,” said Ummy Dubow, CARE Somalia’s country director.
Women and girls are bearing a disproportionate share of the crisis. “The situation is especially dire for women and girls, who are the last to eat and the first to suffer when food runs short,” Dubow said. “Drought not only robs families of water and income, it also increases the risk of violence, exploitation and gender-based violence, including forced and early marriage for girls.”
The current drought follows the devastating 2021–2023 dry spell, one of the worst in decades, leaving little time for communities to rebuild herds, restore depleted savings or repair water systems. Many Somalis have begun to refer to today’s crisis as Abaartii Oomaan or Biyo La’aan Ba’an — “the severe waterless drought” — a marker of its perceived historic scale. “When a drought is named, it tells you how serious people believe it has become,” Dubow noted.
Even as the humanitarian picture darkens, funding has fallen away. Aid agencies say they have been forced to scale back food distributions, therapeutic nutrition programs, water services and emergency health care because of steep shortfalls. “The UN Humanitarian Response Plan is at one of its lowest funding levels in years,” Dubow said.
Humanitarian groups warn that, without urgent restoration of funding and a rapid scale-up of assistance during the critical Jilaal period from January to March, both food insecurity and malnutrition are likely to deteriorate further. The combination of empty water points, depleted pasture and shrinking incomes reduces families’ options by the day.
CARE is calling for immediate, flexible donor funding and stronger support to local and women-led organizations, which often serve as first responders in hard-to-reach areas. The organization is also urging diplomatic efforts to ensure secure, unimpeded humanitarian access in conflict-affected communities.
In partnership with local organizations — including WASDA Somalia, Save Somali Women and Children (SSWC) and Daryeel Bulsho Guud (DBG) — CARE is delivering emergency water trucking, hygiene supplies, primary health care, cash assistance and protection services across ten regions:
- Sool
- Sanaag
- Togdheer
- Mudug
- Galgadud
- Banadir
- Bari
- Lower Jubba
- Nugal
- Gedo
These interventions aim to stabilize families through the peak of the dry season and bridge them to upcoming rains. But agencies caution that rainfall alone will not reverse the crisis: even if the next seasons perform at average levels, the IPC projects 5.5 million people will remain in Crisis-level or worse later in 2026. Recovery from extreme drought takes time, and only sustained funding, access and livelihood support can prevent repeated backsliding.
For now, the outlook hinges on speed and scale. Field teams describe water points that have run dry, schools reporting rising absenteeism, and health facilities stretched by admissions for wasting. Cash assistance, targeted nutrition support for children and pregnant and lactating women, and water and sanitation services are among the most effective tools to blunt the worst impacts, responders say — but those programs require predictable financing and safe corridors to reach communities in need.
Somalia’s hunger crisis sits at the intersection of environmental stress, economic strain and insecurity. As Jilaal intensifies, the choices for families like Hawo Mohamed Jama’s grow narrower. Aid groups say timely, flexible funding and coordinated access efforts can still prevent a deeper slide — and spare communities another season of irreversible losses.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
