In recent developments from central Somalia, it has become glaringly evident that Al Shabaab, the extremist group that has long plagued the region, has made significant territorial gains. Their coordinated offensive has allowed them to reassert their influence across vital areas in Galgudud, Hiraan, and Mudug. This resurgence occurs amidst notable shifts in international security support for Somalia, with Turkey expanding its military commitments while U.S. involvement appears to be waning.
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A recent map released by the Critical Threats Project on April 17 illustrates that Al Shabaab has reclaimed control over key localities including El Bur, El Dheere, Mahas, and Adan Yabaal. Such advancements are not merely about land; they represent a strategic repositioning—an opportunity to reconnect support zones across central and southern Somalia. Importantly, these gains threaten critical roadways that link Mogadishu to the interior for the first time since 2022.
In the words of the Critical Threats Project, “Al Shabaab is highly unlikely to launch an offensive on Mogadishu to seize power in the short term. However, its gains in central and southern Somalia will allow the group to increase economic and military pressure on Mogadishu, ultimately destabilizing the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and undermining its legitimacy.” This assessment raises important questions: What will the cost of instability be for the everyday lives of ordinary Somalis caught in the crossfire? And what steps can be taken to ensure their protection?
In the face of these unsettling developments, Turkey has responded by deploying at least 400 troops to the TURKSOM base in Mogadishu as of April 21. This deployment is part of a larger contingent of 2,500 soldiers approved for mobilization by the Turkish parliament in July 2024. Such moves underscore a significant pivot in international military presence in Somalia.
Local media reports indicate that these Turkish forces are expected to play a crucial role in implementing several crucial agreements signed between Ankara and Mogadishu in 2024. These agreements encompass building a rocket launch test site, supporting oil exploration activities, and providing military training and air support to bolster Somali troops.
This strategic dialogue was further solidified during meetings in late March between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Their discussions centered on enhancing bilateral defense cooperation and economic collaboration—especially in areas pertinent to counterterrorism and trade. In an age where one cannot avoid contemplating the repercussions of geopolitical clashes, it’s fascinating to think about how the physical space of a nation becomes both a battleground and a meeting point for new alliances.
Turkey’s military footprint in Somalia stretches back to 2017 when it established its first African military base in Mogadishu. Notably, this includes management of the Port of Mogadishu and a maritime security agreement aimed at enhancing Somalia’s naval capacities. With a wealth of resources to be tapped, including natural gas and vast potential oil reserves, Turkey is poised for both economic and military engagement.
As Rashid Abdi, the research director at Sahan Global, aptly puts it, “Turkey’s deployment aims to help ‘boost the city’s defenses’ and ‘protect key installations.’” Yet, as we look towards the future, could this present model of intervention ultimately lead to improved stability, or are we merely postponing a deeper engagement with the roots of the conflict?
Meanwhile, the United States is reportedly reassessing its role in Somalia. As highlighted in a New York Times article from April 10, there seems to be division within the U.S. administration regarding how to approach counterterrorism efforts in the region. Some officials advocate for reduced military presence, while others see a need for increased investment. With recent cuts to funding allocated for the elite Danab special operations forces, which form the backbone of U.S.-Somali collaboration, uncertainty about future support looms large.
Furthermore, the stage is set for a potentially pivotal moment in May, with the United States signaling it will not back the proposed funding model for the African Union peacekeeping mission at the U.N. Security Council vote. While many believe this mission is destined to continue, the protracted negotiations could set off funding shortfalls.
In this intricate dance of international relations and local realities, one must ponder: How can peace truly be forged in the face of such shifting allegiances? As Somalia navigates these treacherous waters, the resilience and aspirations of its people should remain at the forefront of our discussions.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International—Monitoring
