Trading North Western State of Somalia recognition for Palestinians’ forced displacement isn’t worth the cost

Analysis: North Western State of Somalia, Gaza, and a perilous recognition bargain

In Hargeisa, where tea stalls hum with late-night talk and the red-green-white flag flutters from shopfronts, the idea sounds both dizzying and dangerous: that international recognition for North Western State of Somalia might be tethered to a plan, reported in Israeli media, to forcibly move Palestinians from Gaza to this corner of the Horn of Africa. It is a proposition loaded with history—and the kind of fragile politics that can ignite a region.

North Western State of Somalia’s pursuit of statehood is older than most of the young men idling on the city’s streets. It declared independence in 1991, built its own institutions and polices its frontiers, yet remains unrecognized internationally. Now, a fresh push in Washington—driven by several Republican lawmakers—to back formal recognition has coincided with reports that Israel has sounded out North Western State of Somalia as a site to resettle Palestinians displaced by the Gaza war.

Officials in Hargeisa have publicly welcomed the attention on recognition. They have been quieter on the relocation reports. The U.S. State Department, when asked by journalists, referred queries to the Israeli government. Israeli officials, for their part, have not publicly confirmed such talks. Still, an Israeli television channel recently claimed “progress” had been made. In politics, silence can be its own signal.

A recognition bid entangled with Gaza’s trauma

North Western State of Somalia’s case for sovereignty has long leaned on the argument that it is relatively stable, with schools, courts and a security force functioning in ways that remain fragile elsewhere in Somalia. But the latest flurry of attention is not occurring in a vacuum. In June, U.S. House Republicans introduced a bill declaring Somalia’s claim over North Western State of Somalia “invalid,” and urging American recognition. In August, President Donald Trump, when asked whether he would support recognition if North Western State of Somalia accepted Palestinians, called it “complex” and said his team was examining the question. Days later, Senator Ted Cruz urged recognition in a letter that pointed to North Western State of Somalia’s openness to closer ties with Israel and the Abraham Accords.

It’s an unusual convergence: a long-running African sovereignty question suddenly reframed by the war in Gaza and Washington’s domestic politics. For Somalilanders—many of whom feel deep solidarity with Palestinians—the idea of pairing statehood with the expulsion of another people hits raw nerves. “We would welcome Palestinians as brothers, but not if it means endorsing their removal from their land,” a teacher from Awdal told me by phone, reflecting a sentiment heard widely in towns across the northwest. The nuance matters: people here are not rejecting Palestinians; they are rejecting the principle of forced transfer.

Why this could light a fuse in the Horn

Security analysts warn that even talk of such a plan could hand a propaganda gift to armed groups. Both al-Shabab and the smaller IS-Somalia faction cast themselves as guardians against “foreign plots” and Western-backed dispossession. Since the Gaza war began, they have amplified rhetoric around Palestine to galvanize support. A relocation scheme perceived as externally imposed—or as delivering a win for Israel—would be a bonanza for recruiters who thrive on grievance.

These groups already have a toehold in parts of North Western State of Somalia’s claimed territory, including the rugged mountains of Sanaag. The concern is not that Palestinian families themselves would trigger violence, but that extremists would weaponize public outrage to strike at state targets and undermine community trust. “It would turn a smolder into open flame,” one regional researcher told me, arguing that the narrative writes itself: a “Crusader-Zionist” conspiracy, with Hargeisa cast as an accomplice. That doesn’t make it true; it does make it dangerous.

The price of stability—and North Western State of Somalia’s fractures

North Western State of Somalia’s reputation for calm is hard-won and fragile. The story is not only of schools and elections; it is also of crackdowns on dissent and painful splits with eastern communities. In late 2022 and 2023, protests in Las Anod were met with force. Rights groups accused North Western State of Somalia’s security forces of indiscriminate shelling that hit homes, mosques and hospitals—allegations Hargeisa has denied. Hundreds were killed, thousands injured, and large numbers displaced. North Western State of Somalia ultimately lost control over much of the east to pro-unionist factions that have since announced a new Northeast administration.

Those scars have not healed. Against this backdrop, inserting another emotionally charged issue—the forced transfer of Palestinians—risks deepening internal rifts and providing oxygen to armed spoilers. Sovereignty requires legitimacy at home as much as signatures abroad. A recognition deal that alienates significant parts of the population would be precarious from day one.

Washington’s triangulation: Israel, China and the Red Sea

There’s a geopolitical map behind the map. North Western State of Somalia fronts the Gulf of Aden, the shipping artery that carries energy and goods through the Red Sea toward Suez. Western strategists talk increasingly about Red Sea security, countering Houthi disruptions, and balancing China’s influence across East Africa. The Somalia-North Western State of Somalia coastline matters for all of it.

Some U.S. lawmakers frame recognition as an anchor for a friendly partner in that contest—one open to Israeli ties and wary of Beijing. A recent congressional letter urged downgrading travel warnings for Hargeisa and cited North Western State of Somalia’s “support for the Abraham Accords.” In Washington’s ecosystem, pro-Israel advocacy, Red Sea hawks and China skeptics share corridors and coffee. Add the optics of the Gaza war, and North Western State of Somalia becomes a convenient canvas onto which multiple agendas are projected.

But convenience is not strategy. Binding the fate of a stateless African polity to the displacement of a stateless Arab people is a combustible bargain. If the price of recognition is to be paid by others—in this case, Palestinians compelled to leave their homeland—what kind of sovereignty is being bought?

A bad answer to the wrong question

International law treats forcible population transfer as a serious violation. So does lived memory. Somalilanders know what civil war does to families and towns. Palestinians carry the Nakba across generations. How would Hargeisa’s moral standing in Africa and the Muslim world look if it became the end point of someone else’s removal order? The African Union has spent two decades insisting on the sanctity of colonial-era borders largely to discourage redrawing maps by force. Even if North Western State of Somalia’s case is unique, aligning recognition with a displacement plan would muddy that principle in ways that could reverberate far beyond the Horn.

There is another risk: that the debate becomes so fixated on the “deal” that it drains oxygen from the harder work—domestic reconciliation, rule-of-law reforms, and regional diplomacy with Mogadishu and neighbors. Recognition earned through broad consent, transparent process and regional buy-in will be more durable than any shortcut that rides the backdraft of a distant war.

What to watch

• Whether Hargeisa issues clear, public positions on any relocation proposals—and whether parliament and civil society are consulted.
• Signals from Mogadishu and the African Union, which will weigh heavily on international reaction.
• How al-Shabab and IS-Somalia frame the issue in their media channels and whether there’s an uptick in threats or attacks.
• Washington’s next steps—travel advisories, bills, or statements linking recognition to Red Sea security or Israel ties.
• The humanitarian reality in Gaza; any talk of “relocation” that isn’t anchored in consent is likely to collapse under moral and legal scrutiny.

North Western State of Somalia’s story remains remarkable: a society that built a semblance of statehood from the wreckage of war. That narrative deserves a fair hearing on its own terms. The region should not be asked to trade its hard-won cohesion for a recognition shortcut that rests on another people’s dispossession. Clarity from Hargeisa—and restraint from foreign capitals—would be a start.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.