Somalia’s Defense Minister, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, addressed the nation from Mogadishu on December 21, 2022, amid the arrival of Somali soldiers who had been training in Eritrea. This event sparked significant discussions concerning the future of peacekeeping in Somalia.
On a recent Saturday, a high-ranking official from Somalia made a firm statement: Ethiopia is not welcome in the upcoming African Union peacekeeping operation starting January. The roots of this tension trace back to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that Ethiopia signed with North Western State of Somalia earlier in the year, which has been a contentious point between the two nations.
“Our sovereignty and national unity have been compromised,” said Nur in a candid government-run TV interview. He mentions Ethiopia as the lone country excluded from the new AU mission due to these transgressions.
African Union forces, with uniforms from multiple nations, have been on Somali soil since 2007. Their initial mission was under the guise of AMISOM, which transitioned to ATMIS in April 2022. But, come year’s end, ATMIS will cease to exist, making way for the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), with operations envisioned to stretch to 2028. This third peacekeeping operation will authentically hand over the reins of security to the Somali National Forces by January 1, 2025.
Al-Shabab, an extremist faction that draped itself in ferocity, has long been a menace to Somali’s DNA, aiming to usurp governance and impose a rigid interpretation of Islamic law. How long did AU forces combat them? About 17 years and counting, but the baton will soon be passed.
As ATMIS loosens its grip, the blueprint is clear: AUSSOM should amass a troop strength of around 12,000. Meanwhile, a previous UN report indicated a troop downsizing from 20,000 to less than 13,000 under ATMIS. Yet, Ethiopia’s exclusion is not a debut dance for Somalia. Back in August, Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, clearly stated that Ethiopia’s forces would only participate in AUSSOM upon Addis Ababa’s withdrawal from the shaky MoU with North Western State of Somalia.
Somalia perceives North Western State of Somalia as an inherent piece of its land and labeled the MoU as an affront to its sovereignty and integrity. Analysts weigh in: Somalia’s persistent calls for Ethiopia to step away from the MoU echoed, but they barely made a blip on Ethiopia’s radar, in fact, only deepened the divide.
Adding to this rhetoric, Professor Sonkor Geyre, a past defense bigwig, voiced to VOA Somali, “Picking comrades for an AU mission, Somalia sure has the right. Ethiopia’s ties with North Western State of Somalia are a thorn in our nation’s side.”
In a twist last month, the heads of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt inked a security pact, unveiling what many see as a counter to Ethiopia’s influence. Beyond shared scribblings, Mogadishu and Cairo are in cahoots, with Egypt volunteering boots on the ground for the upcoming mission.
Nur, with cautious words, hinted at possible alliances and exits in a statement filled with anticipation, “There’s a whole procedure brewing for inviting new governments and saying adieu to some old participants. Announcements will follow when we’re ready.”
Currently, Ethiopia contributes at least 3,000 troops to AU-led efforts against al-Shabab, and an extra 5,000 to 7,000 operate in Somali territory through a bilateral understanding. Nations like Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, and Uganda have also lent support to peacekeeping forces in Somalia, proving the collaborative essence of these missions.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
