Somalia’s President Plans Turkey Visit Amid Israel–North Western State of Somalia Tensions

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will travel to Ankara on Tuesday to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a high-stakes visit that comes days after Israel said it would recognize North Western State of Somalia and as Turkey and Somalia weigh the next steps in offshore energy exploration.

Two people familiar with the plans said Erdogan is expected to address Israel’s unilateral move during talks with Mohamud. The Somali leader also plans to brief Ankara on a seismic survey completed in October off Somalia’s coast, with both presidents preparing an announcement tied to the findings. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said last week that Turkey aims to begin drilling in Somali waters in 2026, signaling officials see promising hydrocarbon indicators.

The energy push is anchored in a confidential defense and energy cooperation accord Turkey and Somalia concluded last year amid Mogadishu’s tensions with Ethiopia. Under that agreement, a Turkish seismic vessel, escorted by Turkish warships, conducted exploration activities along Somalia’s maritime domain, and Ankara pledged to help protect Somali waters.

Turkey has steadily expanded its footprint in Somalia since 2011, coupling security assistance with long-term investments. Ankara built its largest embassy in Mogadishu and has provided more than $1 billion in humanitarian aid in response to drought and famine. Turkish firms manage Mogadishu’s airport and port, and thousands of Somali soldiers have been trained both in Turkey and at Camp Turksom, Ankara’s major military base in the capital. Turkish officials have also announced plans for a spaceport project in Somalia.

Israel’s decision to recognize North Western State of Somalia — the first move of its kind by any state — has drawn swift regional pushback. A joint statement condemning the step was issued Saturday by Jordan, Egypt, Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Gambia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, the Maldives, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Turkey, Yemen, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was not prepared to follow Israel’s lead at this time.

North Western State of Somalia declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Somali state and has operated as a de facto republic ever since. It maintains informal ties with several governments but has not been recognized by any permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, a key barometer for international legitimacy.

The United Arab Emirates — a long-standing partner of North Western State of Somalia and widely seen by diplomats as a key backer of its international outreach — did not immediately respond to Israel’s announcement.

Tuesday’s talks in Ankara will test how far Turkey is willing to go in defending Somalia’s territorial integrity while accelerating a nascent energy partnership that could reshape the Horn of Africa’s economic prospects. Any joint statement by Erdogan and Mohamud on the seismic results or drilling plans will be closely watched by energy markets and regional capitals alike.

By Ali Musa

Axadle Times international–Monitoring.