Somalia’s main opposition bloc joins Mogadishu talks on elections, political crisis

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the Somali Future Council, says it will attend a federal government–led consultative conference in Mogadishu, a move the bloc casts as essential to averting a constitutional vacuum and breaking the country’s escalating political and electoral impasse.

In a statement issued Saturday, the alliance framed its participation as a bid to secure an inclusive political settlement that preserves the unity and statehood of the Federal Republic of Somalia. The Somali Future Council warned the country has entered a fragile phase marked by unresolved political and constitutional disputes that threaten territorial cohesion and social stability. Prolonged stalemate, it said, risks creating openings for militant groups and other spoilers.

“The current situation poses a serious risk to Somalia’s statehood and unity,” the Council said, urging political leaders to act with restraint and responsibility.

The opposition’s attendance is conditional. The Council said the Mogadishu forum must be conducted in an atmosphere of trust, goodwill and genuine dialogue. It also urged President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to halt ongoing efforts to amend the provisional constitution adopted in 2012, arguing that negotiations should focus squarely on the most urgent challenges facing the country.

The Somali Future Council outlined a four-part agenda it wants prioritized at the conference:

• National security, with an emphasis on intensifying the fight against al-Shabab and the Islamic State group
• Consensus on a credible electoral framework for federal institutions
• Measures to strengthen national unity and social cohesion
• Emergency responses to worsening drought conditions affecting large parts of the country

Technical preparations for the opposition’s engagement will be led by a committee chaired by lawmaker Abdullahi Abukar Haji, widely known as Abdullahi Arab, the Council said.

Federal officials have billed the consultative conference as a mechanism to reinforce national unity, promote a democratic process grounded in dialogue and compromise, and ensure citizens’ voices shape Somalia’s political trajectory. The meeting is expected to bring together federal and regional leaders, opposition groups, and civil society representatives to seek agreement on sequencing and rules for the next phase of the country’s political transition.

The talks come amid mounting pressure on Somali leaders to settle on an election model as current political mandates approach their end. Diplomats and analysts have repeatedly warned that failure to reach consensus could reopen entrenched rifts between federal and regional authorities, undercut recent security gains against militant groups and stall broader state-building efforts.

International partners have welcomed signs of engagement. The United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia, along with the European Union and the United Kingdom, recently praised the decision to convene the forum and formally invite the Somali Future Council, calling it a positive step toward easing political tensions and restoring momentum to Somalia’s fragile democratic transition.

For the opposition, the stakes are both institutional and existential: ensuring the country does not slip into a governance gap while safeguarding a path toward inclusive elections. For the government, the challenge will be to translate the conference’s broad mandate into tangible compromises on security coordination, constitutional issues and an election roadmap acceptable to all key stakeholders.

Whether the Mogadishu talks can deliver binding agreements will depend on the good faith of participants and the willingness of leaders to suspend polarizing initiatives, such as unilateral constitutional changes, in favor of consensus. The Somali Future Council’s decision to attend removes a major obstacle to dialogue. The next test is whether the conference can convert attendance into agreement — and agreement into action.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.

Saturday January 24, 2026