Somalia on the Brink of Fragmentation Under Hassan Sheikh Amid Escalating Federal Rift
MOGADISHU, Somalia— Somalia’s fragile federal system faces a fresh test after Jubaland moved to strip the words “federal member” from its official title, a direct challenge to Mogadishu that echoes an earlier rupture by Puntland State and deepens a nationwide constitutional and political rift under PresidentHassan Sheikh Mohamud.
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The move, announced Sunday by Jubaland regional Speaker Sheikh Abdi Mohamed, follows months of acrimony over federal constitutional amendments and a contentious transition plan from Somalia’s indirect election model to universal suffrage. Critics say the changes have advanced without consensus, inflaming suspicion among powerful regional states.
Jubaland lawmakers approved charter revisions that remove all references to “federal member state,” formally rebranding the entity as the Government of Jubaland. “We have enacted the amendments and removed the term from the constitution,” Speaker Abdi Mohamed Abdirahman said at the Eighth Jubbaland Health Conference. “From today, it is the Government of Jubbaland.” He directed the cabinet to adopt the new designation in all official business.
Puntland State set a similar precedent in 2023, declaring it would run its affairs as an independent administration until the national constitution is finalized and a referendum is held. In March last year, Puntland State withdrew recognition of the federal government after lawmakers in Mogadishu passed constitutional amendments.
The political stakes are rising ahead of the next national contest, with many observers expecting Puntland State leader Said Deni to seek the federal presidency next year. In parallel, Jubaland is preparing to host opposition leaders in Kismayo in the coming days, signaling a possible consolidation of anti-Mogadishu sentiment across regional power centers.
Both Deni and Jubaland’s regional leader, commonly known as Madobe, have questioned PresidentHassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership, accusing him of eroding the economy, politics and social cohesion while providing limited support to the regions. Their criticism has been sharpened by ongoing quarrels over federal authority and resource allocation.
Two months ago, Hassan Sheikh traveled to Jubaland to ease tensions, but relations remain strained. The federal government does not recognize Madobe’s re-election last year, a core source of friction between Kismayo and Mogadishu that has complicated any reconciliation effort.
The security track has also fed the political breakdown. Jubaland has protested federal deployments in Gedo and Ras Kamboni that brought national forces into direct confrontation with regional units. Federal troops were defeated in that battle, but the scramble for influence in Gedo—an area of strategic and political interest—continues to fuel distrust.
The dispute is already shaping Somalia’s next electoral timetable and model. Puntland State and Jubaland insist on maintaining the traditional indirect system, arguing the country lacks the capacity to run one-person, one-vote polls nationwide. They warn a rushed shift could trigger legal challenges and term extensions. Mogadishu, meanwhile, has championed universal suffrage as a democratic milestone.
The larger question now hangs over the viability of Somalia’s federalism itself. For some Somalis, the mounting fragmentation underlines that the model may be ill-suited to the country’s political realities. Others argue federalism—despite its flaws—has held the state together through years of crisis. With Jubaland joining Puntland State in distancing itself from the federal fold, the balance appears ever more precarious, with governance, service delivery and national cohesion all at risk.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
