The Geopolitical Balancing Act: Somalia’s Navigating Partnerships

As the new year unfolded on January 1, 2024, Egypt’s strategic ambitions took a significant leap forward. The country eagerly embraced an agreement with Addis Ababa, granting naval and commercial access to the vital port of Berbera in North Western State of Somalia for an extensive period of up to fifty years. In a swirl of diplomatic tension, this memorandum of understanding drew sharp criticism from Somalia, which condemned the deal as an “illegal violation of sovereignty.” Such statements alone suggest a deeper unrest in the region — are we witnessing a dramatic shift in power dynamics?

In response to Ethiopia’s burgeoning influence, Somalia moved swiftly to form an alliance with Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti. This coalition aimed to counter what Mogadishu perceived as Ethiopia’s encroachment on its territorial integrity after the signing of the MoU. It seemed that the geopolitical chessboard was rapidly changing. Yet, in a surprising twist, Turkey intervened, mediating the Ankara Declaration in December 2024 and effectively dismantling the agreement that had heightened tensions. What does this tell us about the fragility of regional alliances?

Despite claims of neutrality, Somalia’s diplomatic posture remains complex. In 2022, Villa Somalia, the presidential residence, adopted a careful stance when the president’s spokesman denied any reports suggesting that Mogadishu had aligned itself with Egypt’s legal position at the U.N. Security Council. However, whispers from various sources pointed toward intensive lobbying by Egyptian envoys, seeking Somalia’s endorsement ahead of the approaching Nile negotiations pegged for September in Washington. One must wonder: Can Somalia really stay impartial in such a high-stakes game?

Political analyst Talaat Taha from Al-Fajr newspaper captures the sentiment well: “Egypt moved first to counter any tightening of the Addis Ababa–Mogadishu relationship.” The urgency of this maneuver reflects a broader strategy that transcends mere territorial disputes; it is about securing a nation’s future amidst competing interests.

Abdisalam Haji Ahmed, a respected voice from Mogadishu’s Institute for Political Studies, raised a pertinent warning: “Overt alignment with either camp could jeopardize aid and security cooperation.” His insight underscores a crucial reality—Somalia finds itself at a crossroads. It must tread carefully. The pressure to choose a side, particularly in such a volatile region, could destabilize vital support systems essential for survival and progress.

Interestingly, Somalia appears to view Egypt not just as an ally but as a partner with potential benefits. The focus is on upgrading port facilities and bolstering coast guard training. On the other hand, Ethiopia has offered subsidized scholarships and military courses. These educational initiatives provide a glimpse into the offerings on the table. Under an implementation deal laid out in October 2024, Cairo committed to dispatching up to 1,000 troops to participate in the African Union’s post-ATMIS peacekeeping mission. Here, one must ponder—what does it mean for a nation like Somalia to juggle such various threads of support?

Confidential sources within Villa Somalia shared insights that reflect a pragmatic approach to its foreign relations. “We hope to harvest benefits from both capitals without being branded an Egyptian proxy or an Ethiopian appendage,” noted one senior Somali diplomat, wishing to remain anonymous. This perspective highlights the delicate balancing act at play—much like a tightrope walker cautiously navigating heights without a safety net.

Egypt’s interests are not confined solely to the Nile. In an unexpected alignment, Egypt and Djibouti announced in April that they alone should oversee policing the extensive 3,300-kilometer coastline of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. These crucial waters facilitate roughly 10 percent of global maritime trade. That statistic alone underscores the strategic importance of stability in this region. How can Somalia leverage these alliances without being pulled into a spiral of regional conflict?

Looking ahead, President Hassan Sheikh plans to address the Parliament of Somalia this Tuesday. His agenda? To clarify how the country will maintain its neutrality while simultaneously seeking infrastructure funding and security assistance from both Cairo and Addis Ababa. Lawmakers are keen to hear how he intends to navigate these complex waters without alienating either partner. With further Egyptian arms deliveries already condemned by Ethiopia as “destabilizing,” the stakes have never been higher. Will he manage to walk this tightrope without falling?

All eyes will be on Somalia as the World Bank-brokered Nile negotiations resume. The coming discussions could either solidify or shatter the fragile peace that the region currently enjoys. President Hassan Sheikh’s impending briefing to the legislature promises to be a revealing moment. The question remains: Can Somalia emerge from this geopolitical maelstrom unscathed while engaging with both sides?

These are not just questions of foreign policy; they are about the very essence and future of Somalia. How the nation navigates these tricky alliances will ultimately define its identity on the world stage.