Somali intelligence, allied forces kill three senior al-Shabab commanders in Hiiraan

Somalia says airstrike kills three senior al‑Shabab commanders in Hiiraan

What happened

Mogadishu — Somalia’s government said Tuesday it killed three senior al‑Shabab commanders in an airstrike in the central region of Hiiraan, the latest strike in a campaign it says aims to shear away the group’s leadership and sap its battlefield strength.

In a brief statement, the federal government said the operation was carried out by Somalia’s intelligence service “working with international partners,” and targeted “important leaders” accused of directing attacks and sowing insecurity across Hiiraan. Among those killed, authorities said, was Abdi Hiiray, described as a senior figure linked to assaults in both Hiiraan and neighboring Middle Shabelle.

Officials promised more details “in the coming hours,” including the precise location of the strike and an assessment of the operation’s impact. There was no immediate independent confirmation from local hospitals or community leaders, and the government did not say which foreign partner conducted or enabled the strike.

Why it matters

Hiiraan, bisected by the Shabelle River and crisscrossed by key roads connecting Somalia’s center to the capital, has long been a strategic frontline. In recent years, Somali forces have leaned on local community fighters, known as macawisley, to reclaim territory from the al‑Qaida‑linked group. Airstrikes—often coordinated with ground operations—have become a central pillar of the campaign, targeting both commanders and training sites in an effort to disrupt planning and logistics.

Knocking out senior operatives can matter in a movement that relies on regional command structures to wage guerrilla warfare and stage high‑impact bombings. It disrupts continuity and may force the group to reassign operatives or scale back plans. Yet, as Somalia’s war has repeatedly shown, al‑Shabab has proved adept at regenerating leadership and shifting tactics under pressure.

The bigger picture

Somalia’s counterinsurgency is evolving under a tight timeline. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has been drawing down, handing more security responsibility to the Somali National Army and police. That transition—long planned but always fragile—places greater emphasis on Somali intelligence‑led operations and targeted strikes that can thin the ranks of veteran commanders without the heavy footprint of foreign troops.

Al‑Shabab, for its part, continues to wage a multifront campaign: rural ambushes against army convoys; taxation and intimidation in areas under its shadow; and periodic spectacular attacks meant to dominate headlines and unsettle political elites. United Nations reporting in recent years has consistently found the group responsible for the majority of civilian casualties in the conflict, even as government‑aligned forces have also faced scrutiny over conduct and the humanitarian consequences of fighting.

International footprint

When Somali officials reference “international partners,” they typically mean a mix of intelligence sharing, surveillance, and—in some cases—airpower. The United States’ Africa Command has periodically acknowledged airstrikes against al‑Shabab in support of Somali operations. Other partners have contributed training, equipment, and planning support. The government did not specify on Tuesday who was involved in the Hiiraan strike, and such details often emerge only after declassification or third‑party confirmation.

Washington and other capitals see Somalia’s stability as tethered to wider regional security: maritime routes in the Indian Ocean, the resilience of East African economies, and the risk that ungoverned spaces could host transnational threats. As a result, the counterinsurgency in Somalia sits within a broader international debate over how to balance targeted kinetic actions with governance, justice, and economic support.

Life along the Shabelle

In Beledweyne, the bustling regional hub of Hiiraan, people move between routine and risk. Trucks ferry onions and charcoal past checkpoints that can change hands. On market days, the scent of cardamom tea drifts past sandbagged positions and corrugated stalls. “You learn the rhythms,” one trader told me during a past reporting trip, “the lulls and the sudden shocks.” The government’s claim on Tuesday suggests another shock delivered from the air—intended for militants, but inevitably reverberating among civilians whose lives have been shaped by a conflict now in its second decade.

Those reverberations include access to farms and grazing land, disruptions to trade, and the burden on clinics that already struggle with flood‑borne disease and malnutrition. Any successful counterinsurgency, say diplomats and aid workers, requires not only degrading the insurgents’ military capacity but also offering predictable security and services. The question for Somali authorities remains: can targeted strikes be paired with the steady, granular work of stabilization—courts that function, roads that stay open, and a police presence that communities trust?

Pattern of intensified operations

Tuesday’s announcement fits a pattern. Over the past two years, Somali forces have claimed a series of strikes, raids, and village clearances aimed at cutting al‑Shabab’s arteries. Some operations have been followed by quick returns of militants and renewed taxation, highlighting the challenge of holding rural ground. Others have enabled temporary corridors for humanitarian access and commerce.

Recent offensives have emphasized “decapitation”—going after bomb‑makers, district commanders, and logisticians. Experts are divided on how decisive such strikes are over time. Leadership attrition can deter complex operations in the short term; yet resilient networks often promote younger, sometimes more radical cadres. What makes the difference, they argue, is whether the state can strengthen local administrations and keep security forces supplied and paid in the weeks after a battlefield gain.

What to watch next

• Verification of identities: Independent confirmation of the three commanders killed, including Abdi Hiiray, and any assessment of their roles in recent attacks.
• Retaliation risk: Al‑Shabab has a record of responding to leadership losses with headline‑grabbing attacks in urban areas or against soft targets.
• Ground follow‑through: Whether Somali forces move quickly to exploit the strike with arrests, weapons seizures, or stabilization in nearby villages.
• Humanitarian access: The effect of continued operations on civilian movement along the Shabelle corridor, especially with seasonal weather shifts complicating road access.
• International posture: Any acknowledgement from foreign partners involved, and what that signals about the tempo of support as AU forces continue their transition.

The next day

As Somalia’s government prepares to release more details, the calculus remains stark. Airstrikes can remove seasoned commanders and buy breathing room. But the test of durability lies downriver, in towns like Beledweyne and Mahas, where residents count the days between blasts and hope that the balance is slowly tipping toward normal life. The stakes are larger than one region: a more secure Hiiraan can anchor trade and trust across central Somalia. The country has been here before; the work now is to make this time stick.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.