Puntland State opposition rejects alleged North Western State of Somalia deal, dismisses reported accord

Puntland State’s opposition rejects reported North Western State of Somalia understanding — and the political ground shifts

In Garowe, the political heart of Puntland State, four opposition parties walked into a hastily called meeting and walked out with a message sharper than usual for Somalia’s notoriously tempered political language: whatever “understanding” was reportedly reached between Puntland State and neighboring North Western State of Somalia, they want no part of it.

The parties — Ifiye, Mustaqbal, Mideeye, and Sincad — said the move undermines Puntland State’s constitution and puts Somalia’s unity at risk. “We categorically reject any form of agreement between Puntland State and North Western State of Somalia that lacks transparency or legal basis,” their statement read, warning of “secret arrangements” that marginalize key political actors. The communiqué they referenced, said to have emerged from a Nairobi gathering, was criticized for language that could be interpreted as tacit recognition of North Western State of Somalia’s claim to independence.

Why this matters beyond Puntland State

Somalia’s politics are intricate, and the map tells only part of the story. Puntland State is a semi-autonomous state that still considers itself part of the Federal Republic of Somalia. North Western State of Somalia, to its west, declared independence in 1991 and operates its own institutions, currency, and foreign relations — without international recognition. Between them lies a line that is more political than geographic, shaped as much by clan dynamics and trade routes as by old colonial borders.

This dispute over an “understanding” touches several live wires at once: who gets to speak for whom in Somalia’s federal system; whether regional states can pursue quasi-foreign policy; and how engagement with North Western State of Somalia is handled at a time when recognition politics in the Horn of Africa are particularly charged.

Somalia’s provisional constitution vests core foreign affairs in the federal government. Yet regional administrations often navigate cross-border realities for security and commerce. That space has long been contested. If Puntland State’s leadership did indeed open a novel channel with Hargeisa, it risks testing the boundaries of that federal compact — and the patience of opponents at home and allies in Mogadishu.

The Nairobi backdrop — and a familiar transparency gap

Details of the Nairobi meeting remain murky, which is precisely the opposition’s point. Puntland State’s government has not publicly confirmed the contours of any deal, or the identity of those who attended. In a landscape where even phrasing can carry diplomatic weight, the lack of clarity rings alarm bells. The opposition’s worry is that language drafted behind closed doors could be read, at home or abroad, as a step toward validating North Western State of Somalia’s decades-long bid for recognition — a step they argue no regional government has the mandate to take.

Somali politics often turns on who is in the room as much as what is on the paper. The four parties’ demand is procedural but powerful: include Puntland State’s political organizations and anchor any outreach to North Western State of Somalia in the federal constitution. “We support initiatives that strengthen unity and federalism,” they said, “but we will oppose any attempt to divide or undermine the Somali nation.”

Las Anod’s shadow

Any mention of Puntland State and North Western State of Somalia today inevitably passes through Las Anod. The town and its surrounding areas saw fierce combat in early 2023, displacing more than 200,000 people, according to the United Nations, and fracturing already fragile trust. Residents still grapple with trauma and disrupted livelihoods, and political lines hardened as families fled and communities split. Against that backdrop, even a technical “understanding” — on trade, security coordination, or border management — becomes politically explosive. It’s not just about policy; it’s about memory and loss.

This is why the opposition’s reaction carries weight beyond rhetoric. For many in the region, the unresolved questions that Las Anod laid bare — who protects whom, on whose authority — remain raw. And for leaders in Garowe, Hargeisa and Mogadishu, every diplomatic overture is judged in the light of that violence.

Internal politics in Garowe

At home, Puntland State’s politics have been unsettled by disputes over timelines, election mechanisms, and the balance of power between the presidency and political organizations. Opposition parties have repeatedly accused the administration of bypassing institutional checks. Their latest statement extends this critique to foreign-facing decisions, framing any unilateral engagement with North Western State of Somalia as a constitutional overreach. The implication is not only that the government may have acted without a mandate — but that it did so against the interest of Puntland State’s own people.

For President and cabinet officials in Garowe, silence is not easy to maintain. Without a clear explanation of what was discussed in Nairobi and why, political pressure will build. Was the goal to ease border tensions, facilitate trade, or create a channel on humanitarian access? Or was it a broader political handshake that blurs lines the federal constitution is meant to keep?

North Western State of Somalia’s calculus — and a region in flux

For North Western State of Somalia, any engagement with a Somali federal member state can be read in multiple ways. Hargeisa sees itself as dealing state-to-state; Garowe sees itself as managing a sensitive neighborhood dispute within a federal system. Both readings carry risks and rewards. In January 2024, North Western State of Somalia’s memorandum with Ethiopia — touching ports and recognition — upended regional assumptions and triggered a fierce response from Mogadishu. That episode showed how quickly recognition politics can inflame the Horn of Africa, where Red Sea trade lanes, Gulf influence, and climate-stressed economies are drawing external actors deeper into local disputes.

Somalia’s federal government, for its part, has tried at various moments to lead talks with North Western State of Somalia — in London, Ankara, Dubai, and most recently Djibouti. None has yielded a breakthrough. If Puntland State now appears to be carving its own path, it adds a new layer of complexity to a process already crowded with mediators and fraught with mistrust.

What would a constructive path look like?

First, daylight. If there is an understanding, publish it. Transparency is not a luxury in Somali politics; it is the only currency that buys public patience. Second, scope. Any technical cooperation — on trade corridors, cross-border markets, or preventing armed clashes — should be ring-fenced from questions of recognition or sovereignty, which belong to the federal table. Third, inclusion. Involve Puntland State’s political organizations and parliament, and brief the federal government. That does not guarantee consensus, but it narrows the room for suspicion.

Somalis often say nabad iyo nolol — peace and livelihood — go hand in hand. The communities straddling the Puntland State–North Western State of Somalia line are trading, marrying, and rebuilding even as politics sputters. They will be the first to feel the consequences of elite decisions made far away, and the last to be consulted. What are their priorities? Safe roads. Predictable markets. Schools that reopen after conflict. Those things are not incompatible with principled politics. But they do require that leaders resist the temptation to claim victories in private and then defend them in public.

For now, the ball is in Garowe’s court. The opposition has thrown down a marker. The government’s response — whether to clarify, double down, or recalibrate — will echo far beyond Puntland State. In the Horn of Africa, where lines on the map rarely stay still for long, the real test is whether leaders can draw political boundaries without redrawing the ones that matter most to ordinary people.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.