As President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud endeavors to rally federal member states, seeking to forge a unified front against Somalia’s myriad political challenges and the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab militants, the situation remains complex and fraught with tension. How can leaders navigate the delicate balance of power and cooperation? Indeed, the breakdown in relations has escalated into an outright conflict.

In a particularly turbulent incident in December 2024, Jubbaland forces and Somali federal troops found themselves in a violent clash. The theater of this confrontation was Ras Kambooni, a critically positioned town close to the Kenyan border. Jubbaland, thrusting itself into the spotlight, proclaimed its capture of the area. This claim was aggressively countered by federal officials, who accused Jubbaland of sparking the altercation and, more alarmingly, of colluding with Al-Shabaab militants—a charge Jubbaland vehemently denied.

An air of distrust pervades the atmosphere, with Jubbaland officials asserting that the Somali National Army (SNA) has been co-opted into a tool of political maneuvering to tighten the federal government’s grip over autonomous states. Furthermore, they charged the central authority with halting vital development projects, rerouting humanitarian aid, and even restricting civilian air traffic to exert pressure on the region. “These actions,” an official noted in a stern rebuke, “are nothing short of coercive politics undermining regional autonomy.”

President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, re-elected for the third time in November 2024, despite fierce opposition from federal quarters, has emerged as an outspoken critic of what he perceives as the central government’s “monopolization of power and resources.” In a speech that resonated widely, Madobe drew an analogy likening the federal administration to a private enterprise confined to Mogadishu, isolated from the diverse needs of Somalia’s regional landscapes.

Another contentious issue is electoral reform—a tempest in its own right. Jubbaland, breaking away from the federal government’s vision for universal suffrage, opted to orchestrate its own indirect elections. This divergence was met with staunch federal repudiation, resulting in the declaration of Madobe’s presidency as illegitimate and an arrest warrant being issued for him. In a twist that could be described as poetic, Jubbaland reciprocated with a warrant for President Mohamud, a move that has only deepened the political chasm.

Despite the turbulent narrative, there are glimmers of hope. Jubbaland’s president, widely recognized as Ahmed Madobe, has, at times, shown a willingness to embrace inclusive dialogue. This sentiment is particularly pronounced regarding national unity and the coordination required to successfully counter terrorism. It was in March 2025 when Madobe extended a hand towards reconciliation, responding positively to President Mohamud’s appeals for dialogue. In his words, “national unity is indispensable to vanquishing insurgency.” Nonetheless, he maintained that any dialogue requires inclusivity, transparency, and above all, respect for the autonomy of the federal member states.

Can Somalia, a nation marked by its diverse clan dynamics and complex political landscape, rise above these divides? The path to peace is peppered with challenges, but nurturing open channels of communication and embodying collaborative governance could be the catalysts needed for progress. As one elder from the region remarked, recalling the traditional Somali wisdom passed down through generations, “A single finger cannot lift a pebble.” The journey towards peace beckons cooperation, patience, and a shared vision for the future.