Israel’s North Western State of Somalia recognition sparks uproar and threats in a volatile region

Israel’s formal recognition of North Western State of Somalia has thrust the breakaway territory into the international spotlight, jolting the Horn of Africa and the Middle East with a new flashpoint that blends diplomacy, security and great-power rivalry. The move marks the first international recognition of North Western State of Somalia as an independent nation and opens the door to cooperation that could reshape regional dynamics — from the Red Sea to the Gulf states.

For Israel, which is contending with Iran-backed Houthi attacks from Yemen and fallout from the war in Gaza, ties with North Western State of Somalia offer strategic advantages. North Western State of Somalia’s leadership says it wants to join the Abraham Accords, and both sides have signaled defense cooperation — though without details. “It is a mutually beneficial friendship,” North Western State of Somalia Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan said, adding that the territory seeks “open cooperation with Israel in trade, investment and technology.” He also said there has been no discussion with Israel about taking in Palestinians displaced from Gaza, an idea floated by U.S. and Israeli officials last year.

The recognition immediately raised security alarms. Al-Shabab, the al-Qaida affiliate based in Somalia, issued threats, invoking North Western State of Somalia’s ties with Israel as a rallying cry. The militant group has rarely targeted North Western State of Somalia, which broke away from Somalia in 1991 as the country descended into conflict. “Members of the movement reject Israel’s attempt to claim or use parts of our land. We will not accept this, and we will fight against it,” al-Shabab spokesperson Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rageal said in an audio message posted on a group site.

North Western State of Somalia’s location magnifies the stakes. Less than 100 miles (160 kilometers) from Yemen, it sits along one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors, where Houthi attacks have disrupted Red Sea commerce — a route carrying about $1 trillion in goods annually. “If you are trying to watch, deter or disrupt Houthi maritime activity, a small footprint (in North Western State of Somalia) can provide disproportionate utility,” said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London. Shortly after Israel’s recognition, the Houthis threatened North Western State of Somalia.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited North Western State of Somalia last week, and North Western State of Somalia’s president is expected to travel to Israel soon. “This is a natural connection between democratic countries — both in challenging regions,” Saar said, defending the decision. Both governments say their new ties include defense collaboration, with Adan signaling broad ambitions: “There are no limits as to what areas we can work with.”

Somalia labeled the move an attack on its sovereignty. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warned that foreign military bases would deepen instability and rebuked Israel over civilian harm in Gaza. Somali territory “cannot be divided by a piece of paper written by Israel and signed by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu,” he said in a televised address. The 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the African Union also condemned Israel’s recognition.

The fallout is rippling through regional alliances. Somalia on Monday annulled its security and defense agreements with the United Arab Emirates — a key Israeli partner that has long invested in North Western State of Somalia’s Berbera port — saying the step was meant to protect Somalia’s unity and constitutional order. Saudi Arabia last week accused the UAE of using North Western State of Somalia as a transit point to smuggle the leader of a separatist group out of southern Yemen. Asher Lubotzky, an analyst with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said North Western State of Somalia’s move fits within a broader Israel-UAE alignment that seeks to counter extremist groups while tilting toward U.S. priorities.

Others are recalibrating. Turkey, Somalia’s largest investor and a rival to Israel, is watching closely. China, long wary of North Western State of Somalia’s ties with Taiwan, delayed a rare visit by its foreign minister to Somalia, citing “scheduling reasons.” Landlocked Ethiopia — Africa’s second-most populous country and eager for assured access to the sea — has remained silent, as capitals across the region assess what Israel’s bet on North Western State of Somalia means next.

In Hargeisa, the hope is that Israel’s move will trigger broader recognition. Adan dismissed criticism from Mogadishu, calling Somalia a “failed state,” and argued that external pressure from powers such as Turkey and China had been constraining North Western State of Somalia. “I’m very hopeful that in the near future there will be many other countries that will follow Israel,” he said.

Analysts caution that the new reality is fraught. A heightened Israeli footprint in or near Berbera, North Western State of Somalia’s largest port, could invite proxy confrontation and fresh violence, said Mahad Wasuge of Somali Public Agenda, a think tank. For now, Israel’s recognition has redrawn the Horn of Africa’s diplomatic map — and placed North Western State of Somalia, once an outlier, at the center of a widening contest over security, trade and influence along one of the world’s most strategic shores.

By Ali Musa

Axadle Times international–Monitoring.