MUSCAT, Oman — Iran and the United States are set to open high-stakes talks in Oman on Friday aimed at defusing a renewed nuclear standoff, but a deep dispute over the agenda — especially Iran’s missile program — is already clouding prospects for progress and raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
While both sides have signaled readiness to return to diplomacy, Washington wants any understanding to address far more than uranium enrichment. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks should encompass Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, support for armed groups across the region and “treatment of their own people.” Tehran has insisted the Muscat discussions between Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff focus strictly on nuclear issues.
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“Iran enters diplomacy with open eyes and a steady memory of the past year. We engage in good faith and stand firm on our rights. Commitments need to be honored,” Araqchi wrote on X on Friday, adding that “equal standing, mutual respect and mutual interest are not rhetoric — they are a must and the pillars of a durable agreement.”
The talks come after a volatile summer in which the United States struck Iranian nuclear targets in June as Israel concluded a 12-day bombing campaign. Tehran has since said its enrichment work has stopped. The atmosphere is further strained by a U.S. naval buildup near Iran that President Donald Trump has described as a massive “armada,” following a bloody government crackdown on nationwide protests in Iran last month.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Trump wants to test whether a deal is possible while warning Tehran of the costs of failure. “While these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the president has many options at his disposal, aside from diplomacy as the commander-in-chief of the most powerful military in the history of the world,” she said. Trump has cautioned that “bad things” would likely happen if no agreement is reached.
Iran has warned it would respond harshly to any military strike and has cautioned neighboring countries hosting U.S. bases that they could be drawn into the firing line if involved in an attack.
Analysts say the path to a breakthrough is narrow. “It’s very difficult to see them conceding enough in talks tomorrow for the U.S. credibly to be able to claim that it’s made a breakthrough. And this is where I think military conflict is more likely than not,” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The most immediate sticking point is Iran’s missile program. Tehran has flatly ruled out talks on what it calls its “defense capabilities, including missiles and their range.” Hours before the delegations convened, state television said one of Iran’s most advanced long-range ballistic missiles, the Khorramshahr 4, had been deployed to a Revolutionary Guard underground facility.
On the nuclear file, Iranian officials said last week Tehran is willing to show “flexibility on uranium enrichment,” including handing over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and accepting zero enrichment under a consortium arrangement as part of a solution. At the same time, Iran insists its right to enrich is not negotiable. Tehran maintains its program is peaceful; the United States and Israel have accused it of past efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
The talks also unfold as Iran’s regional position has come under strain. Israeli strikes have battered Tehran’s allies across the so-called Axis of Resistance — from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq — while the ousting of Syrian leader Bashar Assad, a close Iranian partner, has further complicated Tehran’s reach.
The Oman meeting is expected to test whether narrow nuclear steps can be walled off from the broader confrontation over missiles, proxies and human rights — or whether the agenda fight itself will push the sides closer to a military clash neither publicly says it wants.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
