The Looming Climate Challenge in the Greater Horn of Africa
In a region already grappling with the effects of climate variability, the latest forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) adds another layer of urgency. The climate outlook, unveiled at the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi, predicts a troubling future for the October–December 2025 season. It’s a call to arms for governments, scientists, and communities in the Greater Horn of Africa.
A Crucial Period Under Threat
The October–December (OND) period is vital for equatorial Africa, providing up to 70% of the annual rainfall in areas like Kenya and Somalia. However, the new forecast paints a bleak picture of below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across much of the region, with particularly dry conditions anticipated in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.
- Localized pockets, such as south-eastern South Sudan and parts of Rwanda, may experience above-normal rainfall.
- Eastern regions, including southern Somalia and eastern Kenya, face delayed rain onset, complicating agricultural plans.
- Warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected to spread across the region, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.
A Region at the Climate Crisis Frontline
The Greater Horn of Africa’s climate challenges are symptomatic of broader global trends. As scientists worldwide witness increasingly erratic weather patterns, the words of Mohamed Ware, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary, ring with urgency: “The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis.” His urging for regional collaboration underscores the reality that these issues transcend national borders.
This sentiment is echoed by Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Dr. Deborah M. Barasa. “Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach,” she emphasized during the forum. The interconnected nature of climate impacts necessitates this collective response.
The Human Element
For many in the region, these forecasts are more than just numbers and scientific projections. They foreshadow tangible consequences on daily life, from agricultural disruptions to water shortages. In southern Ethiopia, where pastoral communities rely on predictable seasonal rains to support their livestock, the prospect of a dry season can mean the difference between sustenance and scarcity.
Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, highlights the importance of inclusive communication: “Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable.” This encapsulates a recurring challenge—ensuring that critical climate information reaches those most affected, often in remote or underserved communities.
Global Implications and Local Actions
While the focus here is regional, the implications are decidedly global. The climate crisis knows no boundaries. The patterns observed in the Greater Horn of Africa reflect wider trends seen in Asia, the Americas, and beyond. Rising temperatures, erratic rain patterns, and extended droughts are becoming universal concerns.
Yet, there is hope and potential in grassroots initiatives and adaptive strategies. Communities in parts of Rwanda have successfully employed rainwater harvesting techniques and drought-resistant crops, showcasing resilience and ingenuity. These localized solutions, if scaled and adapted thoughtfully, could offer valuable lessons for neighboring regions and worldwide.
Reflecting on Our Role
This forecast invites us to reflect on our role in the broader climate narrative. What can governments do to address these issues effectively? How can individuals contribute to a larger solution? The United Nations and various international bodies have long advocated for sustainable practices and climate action, but real change requires commitment at every level.
As we assess the current climate predictions, it’s crucial to consider both immediate and long-term strategies. From policy shifts to technological innovations, there are numerous avenues to explore. The challenge lies not just in planning but in executing these plans inclusively and effectively.
The Road Ahead
The ICPAC’s forecast serves as a sobering reminder of the challenges we face and the collective action required to address them. As the Greater Horn of Africa braces for the upcoming season, the world watches, shares in the concern, and hopefully, in the solutions.
The power of collaboration, communication, and innovation must be harnessed to transform these forecasts into proactive measures. How we respond to this call will define not only the future of the region but also contribute to the global tapestry of climate resilience.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
