Horn of Africa leaders warn of economic impact from Middle East conflict
DJIBOUTI, March 12 — Leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could spill into the Horn of Africa’s economies and stability after holding trilateral talks in Djibouti on Wednesday.
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Djibouti’s President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh hosted Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for discussions centered on regional security and the potential economic fallout as global oil prices climb. Both leaders arrived earlier Wednesday with senior delegations, underscoring the urgency of the consultations.
Somalia’s Information Minister Daud Aweis said the talks covered security cooperation, counterterrorism, Somalia’s democratic development, and ways to deepen investment, trade and infrastructure links across the Horn of Africa. A separate statement from Djibouti said the agenda addressed “regional peace and security, the progress of economic integration, the resolution of shared interests of the three countries and the overall situation in the subregion.”
The high-level meeting came as fighting continues in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28 — a confrontation that has driven up global oil prices and heightened concerns over broader economic disruptions. Officials in the Horn have warned that higher energy costs and increased uncertainty could weigh on growth and strain budgets across an already fragile region.
Somalia and Djibouti have condemned Iranian attacks targeting Gulf countries, positions that reflect wider anxieties in the Horn of Africa about the conflict’s trajectory and its ripple effects on trade and security.
Djibouti and Ethiopia contribute troops to the African Union mission supporting Somalia’s fight against the Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab, an ongoing security priority that featured prominently in the Djibouti talks. Coordinated counterterrorism efforts and stronger cross-border cooperation were cited as essential to safeguarding economic gains and keeping trade corridors open.
While no detailed measures were released, the three countries framed the Middle East crisis as a test of the Horn’s resilience and emphasized the need to reinforce integration plans designed to cushion against external shocks. Policymakers in the region have increasingly linked security coordination with economic objectives, arguing that stability underpins investment and infrastructure development.
Areas under discussion included:
- Enhancing security cooperation and joint counterterrorism operations
- Supporting Somalia’s democratic development agenda
- Expanding investment and trade ties among the three countries
- Accelerating cross-border infrastructure and connectivity
- Advancing economic integration to manage external risks
The trilateral format has emerged as a practical channel for the three neighbors to align on priorities at a moment of elevated geopolitical tension. With oil prices rising and uncertainty clouding supply chains, officials sought to signal continuity in security cooperation and a shared commitment to economic coordination.
Regional observers say the stakes are immediate: higher import bills can quickly filter through to inflation and public finances, while any deterioration in security risks undermining cross-border commerce. Against that backdrop, the Djibouti talks represented a bid to steady the Horn of Africa’s economic outlook and guard against potential spillovers from the Middle East conflict.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
