BEIRUT — Israel ordered residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Zahrani River on Tuesday, signaling a major expansion of the conflict with Hezbollah and a potential deepening of Israel’s de facto control across the border. The evacuation directive, delivered in Arabic by an Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, spokesperson, would push civilians roughly 40 kilometers from Israel’s frontier and extend an Israeli-controlled zone to about 12% of Lebanon, according to the order’s parameters.
The directive follows days of intensified cross-border fire. Since March 2, the IDF has struck targets in southern and eastern Lebanon and around Beirut in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel. Hezbollah launched those strikes after Israel joined the United States in bombing Iran — a state that provides the group with financial and logistical support — further widening a conflict now drawing in regional powers.
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The security picture is rapidly deteriorating. U.N. peacekeepers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, including a contingent of more than 300 Irish troops, have been sheltering in bunkers rather than conducting routine patrols amid ongoing clashes, according to mission officials. The intensified bombardment and newly ordered evacuations are expected to swell internal displacement as families rush to move beyond the Zahrani line.
Israel previously occupied large swaths of southern Lebanon from 1978 to 2000, aided by the South Lebanon Army militia it created. Today’s moves have renewed talk of a buffer zone designed to make it harder for Hezbollah to target northern Israel. The dimensions of any such zone remain unclear, but any fresh Israeli presence inside Lebanon would almost certainly ignite sustained resistance from Hezbollah, as well as allied militias such as Amal. Both groups draw significant support from the Shia majority in the south and maintain intertwined political and military structures.
Diplomatic efforts are stirring but fragile. French President Emmanuel Macron has been working to kindle talks that could be hosted in Cyprus, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Beirut has insisted on a cessation of hostilities before negotiations can begin, while Israel has said it will not halt operations targeting Hezbollah, leaving a narrow path for immediate de-escalation.
The war’s domestic reverberations in Lebanon are growing. The country of more than 5 million is already mired in economic crisis and political paralysis, and the latest escalation has triggered open recriminations in Beirut. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has accused Hezbollah of risking the “collapse” of the state amid the spiraling confrontation, sharpening internal divides over how to manage a conflict that appears to be expanding and intensifying.
UNIFIL’s long-term presence is also in question. The mission’s mandate expires at the end of the year, and international troops are scheduled to withdraw by the end of 2027. Diplomats expect renewed debate over extending that timeline, but a change is seen as unlikely given the United States’ longstanding opposition to the force’s expansion. Any drawdown without a durable cease-fire or security arrangement could leave a volatile frontier with fewer guardrails just as displacement rises and battle lines harden.
For civilians south of the Zahrani, the IDF’s order poses stark choices: leave homes and livelihoods in haste, or risk being trapped between advancing forces and intensifying bombardment. For leaders in Beirut and Jerusalem — and for mediators racing to contain the fallout — the coming days will test whether diplomacy can gain traction before a new buffer zone, and a new chapter of occupation and insurgency, sets in.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
