From Hargeisa to Las Anod: Navigating North Western State of Somalia and Somalia’s Complex Landscape

The political landscape in North Western State of Somalia, particularly in contested areas such as SSC-Khatumo, is undergoing a profound transformation, one that is shaking the foundations of established leadership. At the center of this change is a fractured alliance among three once-united figures: President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, Waddani Party Chairman Hersi Ali Haji Hassan, and former Speaker of Parliament Abdirisak Khalif Ahmed. These leaders, who once shared a common vision under the reformist banner of Waddani, now find themselves grappling with diverging—and at times, conflicting—ambitions for North Western State of Somalia and its surrounding regions.

The political earthquake initiated by Khalif’s unexpected defection to SSC-Khatumo and his presidential aspirations have triggered a substantial geopolitical ripple effect. His actions have not only disrupted North Western State of Somalia’s political status quo but have also unveiled the fragile alliances and hidden agendas that have long shaped power dynamics in the Horn of Africa. This article seeks to dissect the evolution of their alliance, the ensuing break, and the high-stakes power struggle currently unfolding across cities shaping future narratives: Hargeisa, Las Anod, Garowe, and Mogadishu.

I. A Brotherhood Forged in Opposition

For over a decade, Abdirisak Khalif Ahmed stood as a pillar of the Waddani Party. His instrumental role as a founding member and confidant to both Irro and Hersi helped shape Waddani’s identity as a progressive, inclusive, and nationally-focused alternative to the incumbent Kulmiye party. Khalif’s election as Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2021—an election that saw him defeat Kulmiye’s candidate—was not merely a political milestone; it was a deeply personal win for a man who long aspired to act as a bridge between North Western State of Somalia’s center and its distant peripheries.

The trio of Irro, Hersi, and Khalif shared more than just political goals; they were interwoven by trust, strategic alignment, and a lofty vision of a democratic and internationally recognized North Western State of Somalia. Their unity stood as a testament to political maturity in a region often dialectically characterized by fragmentation. Yet, the crisis that erupted in Las Anod would reveal the cracks in this once-solid partnership.

II. The Las Anod Crisis: A Turning Point

In early 2023, Las Anod transformed into a battleground as violence erupted between North Western State of Somalia security forces and local militias aligned with the SSC movement. This conflict, resulting in hundreds of casualties and thousands displaced, illuminated the profound grievances among the Dhulbahante clan, who have long resisted North Western State of Somalia’s governance over the region. In a tragic twist of fate, Khalif, a native of Las Anod and a highly respected Dhulbahante elder, was dispatched to mediate this escalating conflict.

However, what began as an olive branch quickly morphed into a political awakening for Khalif. Disillusioned by the heavy-handed approach of the government and energized by the pleas of his community, he resigned from his Speaker position in June 2023 and boldly aligned himself with the SSC-Khatumo movement. His resignation was not just a personal choice; it sent shockwaves through North Western State of Somalia’s political landscape, marking the first time a prominent figure from Waddani openly sided with a movement that rejected North Western State of Somalia’s sovereignty over contested territories.

III. Irro and Hersi: Balancing Loyalty and Legitimacy

Fast forward to 2024, and President Irro, who had secured his position with a striking 63% of the vote, found himself ensnared in a precarious predicament. On one hand, he needed to preserve North Western State of Somalia’s territorial integrity and respond promptly to public calls for control over Las Anod. On the other, he had to contend with the ramifications of Khalif’s defection, whose grievances resonated deeply with a significant segment of the populace.

Chairman Hersi Ali Haji Hassan, recognized for his strategic discipline, has resolutely defended North Western State of Somalia’s unity throughout this upheaval. However, insiders from the party suggest that Khalif’s departure weighed heavily on both Irro and Hersi. It was more than a mere political betrayal; it represented the unraveling of a brotherhood once forged in opposition against a common adversary.

The emotional aftermath of Khalif’s defection has layered complexities onto Waddani’s internal dynamics. Some party members have begun advocating for a hardline stance against SSC-Khatumo and the burgeoning autonomy sought by the SSC regions, while others find themselves quietly sympathetic to Khalif’s critique of how the government managed the Las Anod crisis.

IV. Khalif’s Presidential Aspirations in SSC-Khatumo

Come June 2025, Khalif made his intentions clear by announcing his candidacy for the presidency of SSC-Khatumo, a self-declared federal state that seeks autonomy within Somalia. Addressing supporters in Las Anod, he asserted, “I can no longer remain on the sidelines. The time has come for us to take initiative and lead this administration into its next phase.”

His campaign promotes a vision centered on local empowerment, federal integration with Somalia, and a sharp criticism of what he labels “unilateral rule from Hargeisa.” This rhetoric has struck a chord with many in SSC, who feel marginalized by the central government in Hargeisa. Khalif’s bid is not merely an electoral strategy; it represents a challenge to North Western State of Somalia’s claims over the region, effectively redrawing the political map as he does so.

V. Navigating Complicated Loyalties

Despite his decisive break from North Western State of Somalia, whispers linger that Khalif continues to maintain private lines of communication with both Irro and Hersi. This situation raises several uncomfortable questions: Could Khalif serve as a backchannel for North Western State of Somalia’s interests? Does Waddani risk appearing divided in its stance on SSC-Khatumo? And, importantly, could this erode public trust in both SCC-Khatumo and North Western State of Somalia’s leadership?

The ambiguity surrounding these relationships could destabilize both camps. For SSC-Khatumo, it raises alarms about possible infiltration or co-optation by former elites. Conversely, for North Western State of Somalia, it risks portraying an image of indecisiveness in the face of a mounting secessionist fervor.

VI. Hersi, Ictisam, and the Shadows of Political Ideology

Beyond political maneuvering, questions regarding the ideological currents within Waddani’s leadership have surfaced. Notably, Hersi Ali Haji Hassan’s alleged connections to the Ictisam movement—a Salafi-Islamist network that has been gaining ground in the Horn of Africa—have come under scrutiny. While Hersi has publicly positioned himself as a nationalist reformist, critics fear that religious affiliations could be reshaping the internal culture and long-term strategy of Waddani.

Some observers worry that Waddani’s secular image may merely be a facade that conceals a more profound ideological agenda. There are apprehensions that Hersi’s consolidation of power could marginalize moderate voices and centralize decision-making around a more religiously aligned cadre. Such developments could have significant ramifications for critical policies concerning education, women’s rights, and judicial reform, possibly steering away from democratic consensus.

VII. Trust Issues: Can SSC-Khatumo Rely on Khalif?

Yet, even as he advocates for SSC-Khatumo, doubts circulate among its ranks regarding Khalif’s true allegiance. Many elders and youth in Las Anod question whether a man with decades in North Western State of Somalia’s political elite can genuinely lead a movement rooted in opposition to North Western State of Somalia’s governance.

Some of these concerns include perceptions of opportunism, lingering loyalties, and a fundamental trust deficit. How can a person who has enjoyed a privileged position within North Western State of Somalia’s political architecture now inspire confidence as the champion of SSC-Khatumo? This internal tension has the potential not only to fracture the unity of SSC-Khatumo but also to undermine Khalif’s legitimacy as a presidential candidate.

VIII. Strategic Calculations: Who Stands to Gain?

While Khalif seeks to position himself as a visionary leader, his ascent may inadvertently serve the interests of both North Western State of Somalia and Northeastern State. From North Western State of Somalia’s perspective, Khalif represents a more moderate and reliable alternative to hardline SSC leaders. His ties to Irro and Hersi could create opportunities for backchannel diplomacy while also potentially tempering radicalism within SSC-Khatumo.

For Northeastern State, a Khalif-led SSC-Khatumo would not just establish a buffer against North Western State of Somalia but could also provide a strategic ally in federal negotiations. This dynamic could shift both regions’ approaches to SSC-Khatumo, favoring Khalif over more militant contenders.

IX. Hassan Sheikh’s Countermove: Supporting Firdhiye

In May 2025, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud extended an olive branch to Firdhiye, inviting him to participate in the National Consultative Council (NCC). This strategic endorsement aimed to consolidate federal influence within the SSC areas and counterbalance Khalif’s uprising popularity.

Hassan Sheikh’s motivations are multi-dimensional. Firdhiye has consistently advocated for SSC-Khatumo’s recognition as a federal entity, positioning him ideologically closer to Mogadishu’s long-term visions. Furthermore, unlike Khalif, Firdhiye is unencumbered by ties to Hargeisa, making him a cleaner partner for the federal government. Ultimately, this emerging rivalry is more than just a local leadership contest; it encapsulates a broader struggle for governance and identity in the region.

X. Implications for North Western State of Somalia and Beyond

The unfolding drama among Irro, Hersi, and Khalif—and the broader competition between Khalif and Firdhiye—carries substantial implications for North Western State of Somalia, Somalia, and the Horn of Africa at large. For North Western State of Somalia, Khalif’s defection has illuminated fractures within Waddani while challenging the government’s ability to retain unity amid rising dissent.

The ideological trajectory under Hersi raises questions about Waddani’s commitment to its secular roots. Could it drift towards conservative Islamism, alienating moderate and secular constituencies? Meanwhile, for Las Anod, the competition between Khalif and Firdhiye offers a chance for democratic escalation but could also sow discord among the ranks.

Northeastern State appears hesitant, observing how a Khalif-led SSC-Khatumo could present opportunities while complicating its own territorial claims. As Mogadishu supports Firdhiye, a balancing act emerges, threading the needle between asserting its influence while safeguarding SSC-Khatumo’s autonomy.

XI. The Sanaag Question: A New Territorial Contest

As SSC-Khatumo aims to solidify control over Sool and Cayn, attention now shifts toward the politically sensitive region of Sanaag. Both SSC-Khatumo and the Federal Government of Somalia are quietly maneuvering to include eastern Sanaag in their territory, despite pushback from Northeastern State and North Western State of Somalia. Federal officials have seen potential for shifting local allegiances, a move that could further extract Sanaag from North Western State of Somalia’s grasp. However, Northeastern State argues against this strategy, viewing it as “deliberate destabilization.”

This developing scenario poses a new risk of conflict over Sanaag, potentially igniting a three-way contest that could plunge the region into chaos.

Conclusion: A Region in Flux, A Brotherhood Torn

What began as a shared political vision among Irro, Hersi, and Khalif has devolved into a multifaceted contest over identity, ideology, and influence. Their personal connections—initially celebrated as a hallmark of North Western State of Somalia’s political advancement—have been eroded by diverging ambitions and starkly different visions for the future.

Khalif’s migration from a national leader to a regional figure has not only redefined the landscape of SSC-Khatumo but also exposed the fragility of alliances built on convenience rather than genuine conviction. His campaign presents both a provocation to North Western State of Somalia and a litmus test for the internal cohesion of SSC-Khatumo. Yet, even as he gains traction, questions about his loyalties and past affiliations linger.

As for Hersi, his consolidation of power within Waddani—and the clouds of alleged ideological shifts toward more conservative framework—raises critical concerns for North Western State of Somalia’s political future. Can Waddani continue to embody the principles of a secular reformist movement, or is it poised to become a vehicle for religious conservatism disguised as nationalism?

Beyond local dynamics, the federal government’s strategic inner workings have broader implications, and its moves around Sanaag could spark new conflicts with North Western State of Somalia’s statehood narrative. As the plays and counterplays unfold, one must reflect: What lies ahead for a region tangled in a web of political and historical complexities?

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring