Ethiopia Raises Concerns Over Egyptian Military Presence in Somalia

Mogadishu (AX) — Tensions in the Horn of Africa are escalating as Ethiopia’s chief military officer recently raised alarms regarding an increased military presence from Egypt in Somalia. This situation poses what Ethiopia considers a substantial threat to its national security, drawing attention from both regional observers and the international community.

During a parliamentary briefing in Addis Ababa, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, the Chief of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, articulated his worries clearly and emphatically. “The threat is real,” Berhanu stated, stressing that foreign troops have amassed in Somalia under the guise of cooperation, but their true intentions could undermine Ethiopian sovereignty. He captured the gravity of the situation, declaring, “There are foreign forces inside Somalia whose strategic intent raises serious concerns for Ethiopia’s stability.” What does it mean when security aligns with vulnerability, and how can countries navigate such complex dynamics?

While Berhanu did not explicitly name Egypt in his comments, the context of his remarks is critical. Reports have indicated that in August 2024, Cairo inked a military cooperation agreement with Somalia, which entails deploying as many as 10,000 troops to the country. Approximately half of these troops are anticipated to operate under the African Union’s stabilization mission, termed AUSSOM, with the remainder under direct bilateral control. This agreement, which notably includes provisions for transferring weaponry, has further heightened Ethiopia’s sense of unease.

Ethiopia’s troops are already present in Somalia, engaged in both the African Union mission and separate bilateral arrangements. Berhanu’s comments underscore a specific concern that Egypt’s military entrenchment may form part of a broader strategy aimed at encircling or undermining Ethiopia. Can alliances be truly cooperative, or do they often mask underlying tensions that could erupt into conflict?

This isn’t merely a new chapter in military cooperation; it’s a reminder of the long-standing discord between Ethiopia and Egypt, particularly over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Egypt sees the dam as a threat to its vital water resources, while Ethiopia regards it as a legitimate sovereign initiative aimed at development. It raises a vital question: Can nations build bridges, or will their historical grievances ultimately dictate their paths?

During the same parliamentary session, Berhanu elaborated on Ethiopia’s original military engagement in Somalia, which was primarily focused on stabilizing the region and combating the militant group Al-Shabaab. However, he acknowledged that evolving regional dynamics necessitate a thoughtful reassessment of Ethiopia’s security strategy. “Our presence in Somalia has always been about supporting peace and counterterrorism,” he noted, but warned that the current environment demands a fresh evaluation of national interests.

Although he refrained from revealing the precise number of Ethiopian troops engaged under bilateral arrangements, Berhanu indicated ongoing reviews of Ethiopia’s military posture. Reflecting on this transformation raises the question: What does true security look like in a continuously shifting landscape?

In contrast, Somali authorities have defended their agreement with Egypt, claiming its purpose is to rebuild the Somali national army and bolster regional cooperation. They assert that Egypt’s involvement in AUSSOM was sanctioned by the African Union and poses no threat to neighboring countries. However, considering the timing of this military pact—shortly after Ethiopia entered into a contentious memorandum of understanding with North Western State of Somalia—adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

This January 2024 agreement allowed Ethiopia certain access to North Western State of Somalia’s Red Sea coastline, a deal that North Western State of Somalia leaders framed as a potential pathway to international recognition. The Somali federal government promptly condemned the agreement, viewing it as a violation of sovereignty, and took swift action by recalling its ambassador and nullifying the MoU. As a reflection of human relationships, can cooperation blossom amid lingering distrust and perceived betrayals?

Though tensions have since eased, thanks in part to a Turkish-brokered dialogue that sought to explore cooperative possibilities regarding sea access, Addis Ababa has committed to implementing the agreement with North Western State of Somalia without publicly renouncing it. Meanwhile, North Western State of Somalia officials maintain that the pact remains valid. What does this inconsistency imply about the values societies prioritize—cooperation, loyalty, or even the elasticity of agreements?

In a world marked by intricate relationships and shifting allegiances, the unfolding narrative between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia reminds us of the delicate balance nations must maintain. Will they find avenues for mutual security, or will their historical grievances continue to shape a more confrontational narrative?

As we reflect on these developments, it’s clear that the implications extend beyond regional borders. They touch on fundamental issues of trust, cooperation, and the pursuit of national interests, sending ripples through the international community.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring