Before Ethiopian forces are slated to pull out in December, Egypt is ramping up a military presence in Somalia.
Egyptian military advisors, instructors, and commandos are assisting Somali forces in battling Al Shabab militants.
From left, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Photo: AFP
Egypt is amplifying its military presence in Somalia ahead of Ethiopia’s December 31 deadline to withdraw, concurrently training and aiding Somali forces against Al Qaeda-affiliated militants, sources revealed to The National on Tuesday.
Both Egypt and Somalia, belonging to the Cairo-based Arab League, inked a significant military cooperation pact in August. Following this, Egypt has dispatched weaponry, military advisors, instructors, and counter-terrorism commandos to Mogadishu.
Sources expect thousands of Egyptian personnel to participate in the mission by year-end. Ethiopia is thought to have around 22,000 troops stationed in Somalia.
The Ethiopian forces are present via bilateral agreements and under an African Union peacekeeping mandate, aiding Somalia against Al Shabab.
Egypt and Somalia find themselves at loggerheads with Ethiopia. Cairo has raised concerns over Addis Ababa’s Nile dam project, which threatens to diminish Egypt’s crucial share of the river’s waters. Meanwhile, Somalia claims its sovereignty was compromised by Ethiopia’s deal with North Western State of Somalia, which grants Addis Ababa access to a Red Sea port.
Egypt intends to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers by year’s end, a decision publicly backed by Somalia.
Some Somali forces, bolstered by Egyptian consultants, have been strategically positioned along Ethiopian supply routes as a precaution against Ethiopia bolstering its military presence before the withdrawal deadline.
The sources noted Ethiopia increased its troop count to an estimated 22,000 shortly after Egypt began deploying weapons and personnel to Somalia.
Ethiopia has been justifying its Red Sea port agreement with North Western State of Somalia as a strategic move to safeguard trade and stabilize the Horn of Africa, while indirectly critiquing Egypt’s military involvement in Somalia.
Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie, previously the foreign minister, expressed concern through the Ethiopian News Agency that foreign arms could worsen Somalia’s unstable security situation and potentially fall into terrorist hands, namely Al Shabab.
Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi countered by accusing Ethiopia of trying to mask illegal arms smuggling into Somalia, which allegedly are ending up in civilian and terrorist hands, though he did not dive into details.
Ethiopia has continuously sought to assure Egypt and Sudan, another downstream nation, that the near-complete Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam won’t impair their interests. For Ethiopia, the dam is pivotal for national development.
Over a decade of negotiations among the three nations has yet to yield an agreement, with Egypt and Sudan advocating for Ethiopia to sign a binding deal on the dam’s operations and reservoir management. Ethiopia argues that recommendations would suffice.
At an online water conference last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi reiterated, “The River Nile, specifically, is intertwined with the life and survival of Egyptians. It’s Egypt’s lifeblood.” He highlighted the river’s pivotal role in the country’s existence.
In recent years, Mr. El Sisi has tried to drum up support from Nile basin and Horn of Africa countries to pressure Addis Ababa regarding the dam. To achieve this, Egypt has initiated numerous military cooperation agreements with these nations, offering professional help.
Egypt’s actions in Somalia and its burgeoning connection with Eritrea underscore Cairo’s increasing determination to urge Ethiopia towards an amicable dam settlement. Somalia and Eritrea sit by the southern shores of the Red Sea, bordering Ethiopia’s south and north.
In a recently publicized summit in Asmara, Mr. El Sisi, along with Somalia and Eritrea’s leaders, discussed further cooperation. Mr. El Sisi committed Egypt’s support to Somalia, stating, “We will provide every form of aid to our Somali brothers to restore their peace and security.”
“We devised practical suggestions for this assistance,” he continued. “Egypt is resolute in offering counsel and support that aligns with our peoples’ goals and our nations’ aspirations in the Horn of Africa.”
The fortified alliance between Egypt and Eritrea reflects the tensions existing between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The 2018 peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia temporarily calmed hostilities, allowing Eritrea to assist Ethiopia in its conflict against the separatist Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, Eritrea is displeased with Ethiopia’s 2022 peace deal with the TPLF, viewing it as a potential threat to national security.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
