Somali Future Council cautions federal leaders: Do not breach provisional constitution

Somalia’s New Opposition Bloc Warns of ‘Red Lines’ as Federalism Wobbles

NAIROBI — In a city that often hosts Somali politics in exile, a newly formed alliance of regional leaders and opposition figures gathered Wednesday and issued the sort of warning that lands with a thud in Mogadishu: Do not bend the country’s fragile constitutional order. Do not change the rules without consensus. Do not extend your mandate. And do not squeeze Somalia’s federal system until it breaks.

Calling itself the Somali Future Council, the bloc brings together political heavyweights from Jubaland and Puntland State alongside veteran opposition voices. Meeting in Nairobi, they accused federal authorities of straying beyond the 2012 Provisional Constitution with what they described as “abuse of power,” “unlawful amendments,” the “dismantling of constitutional institutions,” and “illegal detention” — a blistering list that reflects a deeper tension pulsing through Somali politics: how much power should sit in Mogadishu, and how much with its regions.

Why this matters now

Somalia’s political calendar is tight and unforgiving, and memories in Mogadishu are long. The last time a federal administration tried to stretch its tenure in 2021, the capital saw street battles and barricades, and neighbors fretted about the country sliding backward just as it was trying to stand upright. The current government has pushed to streamline governance and move toward more direct elections. The Council’s message: the destination may be welcome, but no one takes the shortcut alone.

In their statement, the Council said they reject “any changes to the 2012 Constitution” that are not made through the agreed legal process and oppose “any extension of the term of federal institutions” nearing expiry. They urged the president to return to “constitutional order and national consultation” and called for elections that are “transparent, consensual, and timely.”

On paper, that should not be controversial. Somalia’s federation, born from a 2012 deal to balance central authority with regional autonomy, is a delicate stitching together of power, revenue, and security. In practice, the stitching is frayed. Disputes over who controls airports, who appoints judges, how to distribute security forces, and who speaks to donors are perennial. The Council’s Nairobi meeting brought those arguments into the open.

The federal tug-of-war

Appearances matter in Somali politics. When Puntland State or Jubaland leaders opt to meet in Nairobi rather than Mogadishu, they are sending a message: federal space back home feels constricted. Over the past two years, tensions have flared over civil aviation — including accusations of flight restrictions to opposition-held areas — and over the appointment of regional representatives to federal bodies. Add to that periodic rows over revenue-sharing and security command, and the outlines of the Council’s grievances come into view.

Somalia’s Provisional Constitution envisages a partnership, not a hierarchy. But building that partnership has been slow and halting. The National Consultative Council — the forum where federal and state leaders hash out core political questions — gathers intermittently. When it stalls, improvisation creeps in, and improvisation in a polarized environment looks like overreach to one side and reform to the other.

The Council’s statement invoked more than constitutional language. It listed “corruption,” the “looting of national assets,” the “displacement of vulnerable communities,” and “obstruction of internal movement and civil aviation.” Those are not abstract accusations. Somalia’s economy, though buoyed by remittances and relief, is fragile. The country reached the landmark debt relief “completion point” in late 2023, but donors watch governance signals closely. And displacement is painfully real: millions have been uprooted by drought, floods, and conflict with al-Shabab. When politics goes sideways, it is the displaced who feel it first.

The risks of shortcuts

State-building in Somalia is not a straight line; it’s a series of circles — forward one season, back the next, then a hard-won compromise that moves the line again. In 2022, after months of delay, a new president was elected through an indirect process that involved 329 lawmakers. Many Somalis and their friends abroad want to see the country transition to a one-person, one-vote system. The push is noble. The implementation is the minefield.

We have seen glimpses of direct balloting. Puntland State piloted local one-person, one-vote polls in 2023, a rare sight after decades of handpicked delegates and clan-based quotas. But scaling that model to a national contest requires a consensus on electoral boundaries, a reliable voter registry, and security conditions that allow voters to walk to a polling station without fear. Any sense that the rules are being rewritten on the fly — especially in ways that sideline regional leaders — could collapse the fragile trust necessary to get there.

There are cautionary tales all around. Ethiopia’s centralizing turn triggered revolt in the federal order. South Sudan’s fracturing power-sharing deals plunged it back into conflict. Kenya’s devolution, though imperfect, shows that negotiated power-sharing can slowly change the texture of politics. The lesson is unglamorous but vital: process matters more than pace.

Elections and the clock

Somalia’s leaders face three implacable forces: time, public expectations, and security realities. Time — because mandates are not elastic. Expectations — because Somalis, especially the urban youth and the vast diaspora who wire billions home each year, are weary of elite bargains that seem to serve the negotiators more than the nation. Security — because al-Shabab remains a lethal spoiler, and abrupt political rifts give the insurgency space to maneuver.

Against that backdrop, the Council’s insistence on “consensual and timely elections” sounds like common sense. The challenge is what those words mean in practice. Is there a credible roadmap, agreed by all federal member states, for the transition to direct voting? Can parliament finalize the constitution through a transparent process that includes regional input, rather than last-minute amendments? Will the federal government ease political and administrative restrictions that fuel the perception of central overreach?

What to watch

• Whether the presidency convenes a fully attended National Consultative Council and keeps it alive long enough to hash out a unified electoral calendar.
• If parliament and the constitutional review bodies can agree on the steps needed to finalize the 2012 Provisional Constitution without shutting out dissenting regions.
• Signals on civil aviation and freedom of movement — small tests that reveal whether the center is easing or tightening the screws on regions.
• Messaging from the African Union, IGAD, and key donors, who have long conditioned support on predictable, inclusive political processes.
• How ongoing security operations against al-Shabab are insulated from political turbulence — and whether spoilers exploit the moment.

Somalia has been here before — at a junction where impatience for change meets the solemn responsibilities of a federation still under construction. The country’s recent economic strides, and its genuinely expanding civic space in some regions, show what’s possible when leaders pull in the same direction. But a federation is not a winner-takes-all project. It is a handshake that must be renewed, especially when the stakes are high and the calendar is tight.

If Wednesday’s warning from Nairobi stiffens backs in Mogadishu, it could also sharpen minds. Do Somali leaders want to win a procedural argument, or do they want a political settlement that the country can live with? What will it take — in public humility and behind-the-scenes compromise — to keep the next elections both on time and broadly accepted? The answers to those questions will tell us whether Somalia is edging toward a more durable union, or merely circling back to the brink.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.