A Historic Diplomatic Encounter: Bridging Gaps and Building Trust

Mogadishu (AX) — On a windswept Thursday morning, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is expected to grace the Somali capital’s horizon, setting the stage for an essential dialogue with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. These meetings, vivid with political undertones and strategic dynamics, capture a pivotal moment in the intricate relationship between these two Horn of Africa neighbors. Their journey, marked by maritime disputes and military intricacies, has long tested the resilience and patience of their statesmen.

At the eye of this diplomatic storm lies the dormant agreement between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia—an agreement that ambitiously promised Addis Ababa a coveted 20-kilometre strip of coastline near the booming port city of Berbera. In return, there was the enticing prospect of North Western State of Somalia’s recognition as an independent state. Such a deal ignited the flames of sovereignty indignation within Somalia, prompting the federal government to take drastic steps. Diplomats were recalled, and fiery rhetoric filled the airwaves. The threat of expelling Ethiopian troops from African Union peacekeeping missions loomed large.

Why, you might wonder, does Prime Minister Abiy persist with such a delicate mission now? Interestingly, it’s about timing. His visit aligns meticulously with Ethiopia’s official integration into the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM). By February, both nations had penned the decisive Status of Forces Agreement, anchoring Ethiopian forces under the watchful supervision of Somali governance. This paved the way for a renewed military cooperation narrative, a visitor shared anecdote by a senior Somali official emphasized that collaboration was essential to peace. “True peace is made with yesterday’s adversaries,” he reflected.

The transition from the departing AU mission to AUSSOM means Ethiopian forces will likely maintain their presence in Somali territories. This evolution aims to harmonize Ethiopia’s military pursuits with Somalia’s fight against the unyielding al-Shabaab insurgents. Yet, for all its military weight, Ethiopia’s ocean aspirations remain a contentious facet of Prime Minister Abiy’s regional policy—driven by the desire of a landlocked giant yearning for a maritime doorway.

One must not overlook North Western State of Somalia’s shifting political winds. The ascendant leadership of President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro casts a more skeptical eye on the maritime pact than did his predecessor. Yet, Ethiopian resolve seems unwavering, even as Mogadishu’s diplomatic warriors, primarily propped by regional backers, demand that sea access negotiations bow to federal oversight and international protocol.

Geopolitics, as often then seen, isn’t merely a game of bilateral exchange. As Somalia cozies up to Cairo and Eritrea, signing defense treaties and receiving military aid, Ethiopia observes warily. The specter of Egypt looms over these developments—given its historic opposition to the colossal Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project. It’s almost a chess game of alliances, with Somalia oscillating between trust and strategic caution.

Indeed, the recent Ankara Declaration may have laid some olive branches, but Somalia is nothing if not prudent. President Mohamud, after all, was in Addis Ababa only weeks before his foreign minister pre navigated Asmara’s corridors of power, exploring a trilateral union with Egyptian and Eritrean counterparts. One cannot help but ask, are these hedging tactics signaling a lack of confidence in their northern neighbor?

As Abiy touches down on Somali soil, so much anticipation swirls around the agreement’s fate, the finalization of Ethiopia’s AUSSOM role, and those elusive maritime ambitions. An air of expectancy surrounds this high-stakes visit—a feeling punctuated by promises of a post-visit joint communiqué that hopes to chart a roadmap for their shared diplomatic and security journey.

Will this meeting be a triumph of diplomacy or another episode of regional friction? While an answer remains elusive, one can only watch and wait. “Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring.”