UN says temperatures will remain at record levels into the 2030s
Every one of the 11 hottest years ever observed has occurred since 2015, and the UN’s weather and climate agency says that pattern is poised to persist, with another hottest-ever year considered "likely" before 2031.
A fresh UN warning underscores how relentlessly the planet is heating up: global average temperatures are expected to stay at or near record highs this year and through the following four years.
Every one of the 11 hottest years ever observed has occurred since 2015, and the UN’s weather and climate agency says that pattern is poised to persist, with another hottest-ever year considered “likely” before 2031.
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 75% chance that the average temperature across the 2026-2030 period will rise above the critical 1.5C mark compared with the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
A pharmacy thermometer shows 38C in the French city of Lyon earlier this week
The WMO’s latest outlook arrives as western Europe bakes beneath a “heat dome” of trapped warm air, with May temperature records already toppled in Ireland, France and the UK.
“It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record,” the agency said.
El Niño could shape 2027
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
The previous El Niño helped drive 2023 to become the second-hottest year ever measured, followed by 2024 reaching a new peak at about 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that raises sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, triggering shifts in winds, air pressure and rainfall around the world.
It usually emerges every two to seven years and tends to last for roughly nine to 12 months.
1.3C to 1.9C forecast range
The 2015 Paris climate agreement set out to keep global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to hold it under 1.5C.
Those benchmarks are measured against the 1850-1900 average, before large-scale industrial use of coal, oil and gas took hold and began pumping carbon dioxide — the greenhouse gas chiefly driving climate change — into the atmosphere.
“Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average,” the WMO update said.
A woman shields her head with a fan during the recent spell of extreme heat in Lisbon
The WMO said there is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily top 1.5C above the pre-industrial baseline in at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also estimated a 75% chance that the full 2026-2030 five-year average will come in above 1.5C compared with the 1850-1900 benchmark.
Still, the agency said it remains exceptionally unlikely — less than 1% — that any individual year in the next five years will climb more than 2C above the pre-industrial level.
Arctic temperatures raise alarm
Scientists expect the 1.5C threshold to be crossed more often in the years ahead.
The 1.5C and 2C limits set out in the Paris accord refer to long-term warming sustained over decades, typically 20 years, meaning a temporary breach does not automatically signal that the long-range target has been lost.
Last year ranked among the three hottest years ever recorded, with the global near-surface temperature estimated at more than 1.43C above the 1850-1900 baseline.
Arctic temperatures are forecast to be 2.8C above average over the next five winters
The report was prepared by the UK’s Met Office national weather service and the WMO’s lead centre for annual to decadal climate prediction, drawing together forecasts from 13 institutes.
It said Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters, from November through March, are expected to average 2.8C above the 1991-2020 norm — more than three times the projected global temperature anomaly for the same span.
Forecast rainfall patterns for May to September between 2026 and 2030 also point to wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, alongside drier-than-average conditions across the Amazon.
