UK on brink of warmest year on record as 2025 tracks above 2022 benchmark, Met Office says
The UK could be set to log its warmest year on record, with 2025 currently tracking to overtake the previous high set in 2022, according to the Met Office.
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Forecasters said the provisional annual mean temperature so far stands at 10.05C, edging ahead of the 10.03C recorded in 2022. A forecast cold spell over Christmas means the final figure is not yet confirmed, but scientists say the trend is unmistakable.
“At this stage it looks more likely than not that 2025 will be confirmed as the warmest year on record for the UK,” said Mike Kendon, a senior scientist at the Met Office. “In terms of our climate, we are living in extraordinary times. The changes we are seeing are unprecedented in observational records back to the 19th century.”
If confirmed, the new high would cap a striking run of record warmth. Four of the past five years would rank among the top five since records began in 1884, while all of the UK’s top 10 warmest years have occurred in the last two decades. The UK annual mean temperature record has already been reset five times this century—in 2002, 2003, 2006, 2014 and 2022.
Met Office scientists emphasized that while a late-December cold snap could slightly depress the final number, the year-to-date average remains on a record-setting trajectory. The combination of persistent warmth across multiple seasons and the narrow margin by which 2025 is currently outpacing 2022 suggests the new milestone is within reach.
The potential new record is part of a broader warming signal seen over decades of UK climate observations. Warmer average annual temperatures have coincided with more frequent extreme heat episodes and shifts in seasonal norms, reflected in the concentration of record years since the early 2000s. While the precise drivers behind any single year’s outcome vary, the long-term data show a clear upward trend in the nation’s mean temperature.
Annual mean temperature is a key measure used to assess how conditions in a given year compare with the historical climate baseline. Provisional figures typically firm up in the final days of December as forecasters integrate late-month weather patterns—such as the anticipated Christmas cold spell—into the final calculation.
Should the record be confirmed, it would mark yet another statistical waypoint in the UK’s recent climate history, underscoring how often long-standing benchmarks have fallen in rapid succession. Regardless of whether 2025 ultimately finishes first or narrowly second, the Met Office’s data continue to depict a climate operating well outside the bounds of the late-19th and 20th-century norms.
Final confirmation on the UK’s 2025 ranking is expected after the year closes and full observations are processed.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
