A U.S.-based rights group says it has confirmed the deaths of nearly 6,000 people amid a wave of anti-government protests in Iran, as Tehran warned Washington against intervening and a nationwide internet blackout obscured the true toll.
The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported it had verified 5,848 deaths since demonstrations that began over economic grievances in late December swelled into mass protests against the Islamic Republic, with the largest crowds on Jan. 8. HRANA said the confirmed dead include 209 members of the security forces. The group added it is still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities and has documented at least 41,283 arrests.
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Iranian authorities last week issued their first official death toll from the unrest, saying 3,117 people had been killed. They described most of the dead as members of the security forces or bystanders slain by “rioters.” Rights organizations accuse the state of carrying out an unprecedented crackdown, including the use of live fire against demonstrators during an internet shutdown that advocacy groups say is now in its 18th day.
The network monitor NetBlocks confirmed the blackout remains in place, saying it is “obscuring the extent of a deadly crackdown on civilians.” The group added that “gaps in the filternet are being tightened to limit circumvention while whitelisted regime accounts promote the Islamic Republic’s narrative.”
In a separate claim that could not be immediately verified, the London-based, Persian-language channel Iran International reported that more than 36,500 people were killed by security forces over just Jan. 8–9, citing documents and sources. NGO researchers and journalists say tallying the dead has been severely hampered by the communications shutdown, arrests and intimidation of witnesses, and restrictions on access to hospitals and morgues.
The unrest, the largest challenge to Iran’s clerical leadership since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has not dislodged the ruling establishment. With political avenues tightly controlled and security forces entrenched, some opponents of the system have looked outward, arguing external pressure is the most likely catalyst for change.
U.S. President Donald Trump said last week Washington was sending a “massive fleet” to the region “just in case,” while adding, “I’d rather not see anything happen but we’re watching them very closely.” U.S. media reported the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has been dispatched. Iran’s Foreign Ministry warned of a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response to any aggression,” with spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei saying Tehran is “confident in its own capabilities.”
Public messaging in Iran has hardened. In central Tehran’s Enghelab Square, a new billboard appeared to depict an American aircraft carrier under attack alongside the English-language slogan, “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.”
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who last appeared in public on Jan. 17, said in a televised address that authorities would “break the back of the seditionists.” Security forces have deployed in large numbers across major cities, where witnesses describe checkpoints, sweeping arrests and a heavy presence of riot police and plainclothes agents.
The protests began as demonstrations over inflation, joblessness and corruption before morphing into wider calls for political change. Urban neighborhoods and university campuses have been flashpoints, as have smaller cities often less visible to outside media but hit hard by unemployment and price shocks. Videos shared on social media — difficult to independently verify due to the blackout — show crowds chanting against the leadership and scenes of gunfire, tear gas and mass detentions.
Regional tensions are feeding into the standoff. In Lebanon, Hezbollah — the Iran-aligned militia and political movement — said it would hold rallies in several areas in support of Iran “in the face of American-Zionist sabotage and threats,” with senior figure Naim Qassem expected to speak.
The lack of transparency and the conflicting narratives around the death toll underscore the fog of a crisis unfolding largely out of sight. With internet access curtailed and security forces controlling key routes, analysts say the true scope of the crackdown may take weeks or months to emerge — if ever. For now, the numbers tell only part of the story, and the risks on all sides are rising.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
