Iran war raises 2028 stakes as Trump weighs Vance and Rubio

A war in Iran that is beginning to cloud President Donald Trump’s legacy is also raising the political stakes for two of the most closely watched figures in his orbit: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Both men, often cast as possible heirs to Donald Trump, have been drawn into the still-evolving push to bring thewar to an end just as Republicans are starting to think more seriously about what the party looks like after him.

JD Vance has moved carefully, mirroring his long-running scepticism of ⁠extended US military involvement, while Marco Rubio has tied himself more firmly to Mr Trump’s hawkish postureand become one of the administration’s most forceful public advocates for the campaign.

Prolonged conflict could give JD Vance space to argue he reflected the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base

Donald Trump has said both men took part in efforts to pressure Iran into accepting US terms: dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and ensuring oil can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the US military operation now in its fifth week, political analysts and Republican officials say the outcome could leave a lasting mark on both men’s prospects for 2028.

If the war ends quickly and on terms favorable to the US, it could strengthen Marco Rubio, who also serves as Donald Trump’s national security adviser and may be viewed as a reliable hand in a moment of crisis.

If the conflict drags on, JD Vance may gain room to argue that he stayed closer to the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without directly challenging the president.

Donald Trump’s own political standing is on the line as well. His approval rating slid in recent days to 36%, the weakest level since he returned to the White House, as rising fuel prices and broad opposition to the Iran war weighed on public opinion, according to a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed last week.

Some Republicans say they are closely tracking which senior aide Mr Trump appears to be elevating as the Iran conflict develops. A number of them believe there are signs Donald Trump is leaning toward Marco Rubio, though they caution that his preferences can shift quickly.

“Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and ‌not seeing the same on Vance,” a Republican with close ties to the White House said.

The ⁠White House dismissed the suggestion that Donald Trump is signaling a favorite.

“No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration’s mission of fighting for the American people,” spokesman Steven Cheung said.

From Trump rivals to likely heirs

JD Vance, 41, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has for years warned against deeper US involvement in foreign conflicts. His public remarks on Iran have been sparse and carefully worded, and Mr Trump has acknowledged that the two hold “philosophical differences” over the war.

Before becoming one of Donald Trump’s top allies, Mr Vance was a self-described “never-Trumper” and wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece in 2023 that Donald Trump’s strongest foreign-policy argument was that he started no wars during his first term from 2017 to 2021.

The White House has sought to minimize any suggestion of tension between the president and vice president. Standing with Mr Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month, Mr Vance said he backed President Trump’s conduct of the war and agreed that Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon.

Mr Vance could assume a more ‌direct part in negotiations if Mr Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make enough progress, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

“Vice President Vance is proud to be a part of a highly effective team that, under President Trump’s bold leadership, has had incredible success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous,” a Vance spokeswoman said.

A senior White House official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity ⁠to speak freely about a sensitive topic, said Mr Trump is willing to accept ideological disagreements so long as aides remain loyal, and added that Mr Vance’s skeptical outlook has helped show Mr Trump where part of his base stands.

A person familiar with Mr Vance’s views told Reuters the vice president does not plan to decide whether to run in 2028 until after ‌the November midterm elections.

Marco Rubio, 54, has said he would not run for president if JD Vance does, and people familiar with Mr Rubio’s thinking say he ⁠would be comfortable serving as Mr Vance’s running mate.

Still, ‌any sign that Mr Vance is politically vulnerable could embolden Mr Rubio and other Republicans considering campaigns of their own.

Marco Rubio has long since set aside any frictions with Donald Trump

“Trump has a long memory,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And he may call out Vance for his lack of allegiance. And if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him by not getting the endorsement of the president.”

Mr Trump has floated the possibility of JD Vance and Marco Rubio running on the same ticket, saying such a pairing would be hard to beat.

“Trump doesn’t want to anoint anyone,” the senior White House official said.

A March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 79% of Republicans have a favorable view of Vance, while 19% viewed him negatively.

Some 71% had a positive view of Marco Rubio, while 15% viewed him unfavorably. In comparison, 79% of Republicans viewed ⁠Mr Trump favorably and 20% unfavorably.

Marco Rubio, whose 2016 White House ambitions were derailed after a bruising clash with Mr Trump, has long since moved past any friction with the president.

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said Mr Rubio “has a great relationship, both professionally and personally” withTrump’s team.

Mr Rubio and the White House were pushed into damage control ⁠after he upset some of Trump’s conservative supporters by suggesting Israel had drawn the United States into the war. In the weeks since, however, Mr Trump has publicly praised Mr Rubio’s work.

Asked whether Marco Rubio was worried that a drawn-out war could harm his political future, a senior State Department official said, “He has not spent a second thinking about this.”

Differences on display

Matt Schlapp, a conservative leader who runs the Conservative Political Action Conference, said the Iran campaign is likely to carry major political consequences.

“If it is seen as successful at getting the job done … Ithink people will be politically rewarded for doing the right thing,” Mr Schlapp said. “If it goes on and on and on … I think the politics are tough.”

Republicans continue to back the US military strikes against Iran in large numbers, with 75% approving, compared with just 6% of Democrats and 24% of independents, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

That divide was visible during a televised cabinet meeting on Thursday, when the contrast between Mr Rubio and Mr Vance came into view.

Marco Rubio offered an emphatic defense of Mr Trump’s decision to strike Iran. “He’s not going to leave a danger like this in place,” the secretary of state said.

JD Vance struck a more restrained tone, centering his remarks on ways to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He ended by wishing ‌Christians and US troops in the Gulf a blessed Holy Week and Easter.

“We continue to stand behind you,” he said to servicemembers, “and continue to support you every step of the way.”