China has confirmed the test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), marking its first such exercise in decades as it fell into the expanse of the Pacific Ocean.
In recent years, China has ramped up its nuclear capabilities and increased its defense expenditure. Back in October 2022, the Pentagon cautioned that China’s development of its nuclear arsenal was outpacing United States expectations more swiftly than anticipated.
As of May 2023, China reportedly possessed over 500 operational nuclear warheads. Experts suggest that this number could soar past 1,000 by 2030.
According to a statement from the Ministry of Defense, “The Rocket Force of the People’s Liberation Army executed the launch at 08:44 on September 25, sending an ICBM with a simulated warhead into the vast Pacific, where it landed in designated sea zones.”
“This occurrence is quite extraordinary—likely the first of its kind in decades,” remarked Ankit Panda, a Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This test appears to highlight China’s ongoing nuclear modernization, which is generating new testing requirements.”
Despite the unusual nature of the launch, China’s defense ministry framed it as “a routine element of our annual training agenda.” The ministry emphasized that the activity abides by international laws and norms and is not aimed at any particular nation or objective.
A representative of the Japanese government expressed concern, revealing that China had not provided any advance notice regarding the ICBM launch. “There was no prior communication from the Chinese side,” stated Yoshimasa Hayashi.
China’s initial ICBM test took place in the South Pacific during the 1980s. However, as noted by Mr. Panda, subsequent tests have predominantly occurred within Chinese airspace.
In 2021, the United States conveyed significant anxiety about reported hypersonic missile trials conducted by China. This marked a period of heightened scrutiny in international relations.
Currently, China is recognized as possessing the third-largest stockpile of nuclear warheads globally, falling behind only Russia and the United States.
Under President Xi, China has been diligently modernizing its nuclear arsenal. In November, representatives from the United States and China held rare discussions focused on nuclear arms control, aiming to alleviate mutual distrust ahead of a summit between leaders Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.
However, earlier in July, China declared that it had halted negotiations with the United States concerning nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, a move perceived as retaliation against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
In its annual assessment, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) placed China among the top three nuclear powers, indicating its significant arsenal after Russia and the U.S.
This year, China also revealed plans to augment its defense budget—the second-largest globally—by 7.2%. Such an increase is reflective of China’s intensifying competition with the United States and its regional allies, particularly regarding contentious areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
This month, high-ranking military officials from both China and the U.S. engaged in “in-depth” discussions aimed at preventing heightened tensions from spiraling into conflict.
Since conducting its inaugural nuclear test in 1964, China has traditionally maintained a relatively restrained nuclear arsenal, continuing to uphold its pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons in any conflict.
Yet, in recent years, under President Xi’s leadership, the nation has embarked on an expansive military modernization campaign, revitalizing its nuclear capabilities to not only act as a deterrent but also to ensure effective counter-strikes against adversaries.
Nonetheless, the often-hidden operations of China’s Rocket Force, which performed the recent missile test and oversees the country’s nuclear assets, have faced scrutiny due to an aggressive campaign against corruption.
In July, it was disclosed that Sun Jinming, the former chief of staff of the Rocket Force, had fallen under investigation for corrupt activities. The former chief, Li Yuchao, was replaced in the same month, while Li Shangfu was unceremoniously removed last year after a brief tenure as defense minister amid unexplained absences from public engagements.
Among other high-profile figures facing disgrace is Wei Fenghe, who once commanded the Rocket Force and later served as China’s defense minister from 2018 until 2023.
