Analysis shows Russia made no territorial gains in Ukraine in March

After months of grinding advances, Russia’s offensive in Ukraine stalled in March, with Moscow’s forces failing to make any territorial gains along the front for the first time in two-and-a-half years, according to an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Over the same period, Ukrainian troops retook nine square kilometres, the analysis found, as Russian momentum slowed across the length of the front line.

The total does not include infiltration missions carried out by Russian forces beyond the front, nor gains claimed by Moscow that the ISW has neither confirmed nor rejected.

The ISW conducted its work alongside the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), another US think-tank focused on conflict.

The ISW linked the recent slowdown in Russia’s campaign to Ukrainian counter-offensives, while also pointing to “Russia’s ban on using Starlink terminals in Ukraine” and “the Kremlin’s efforts to restrict access to Telegram”.

The messaging platform, widely used by Russians, including soldiers on the front line, has become barely functional in recent months after authorities imposed blocks.

As in February, Russia ceded ground in the southern stretch of the front between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where it had occupied more than 400sq/km at the end of January.

That area fell to 200sq/km in February and then to 144sq/km in March. Further north in the Donetsk region, however, the picture remained worse for Kyiv, particularly toward the two key regional cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In 2025, Russian forces advanced more in Ukraine than they had over the previous 24 months combined.

But during the first three months of 2026, Russia’s territorial gains were only half the level recorded in the same period of 2025.

Four years after the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Moscow controls just over 19% of Ukraine, most of it captured in the opening weeks of the war.

Roughly 7%, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, had already been under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the invasion began.

Russian strikes kill 2 in Ukraine, wound dozens

Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least two people and injured dozens more, officials said, as Moscow intensified its deadly bombardment while peace talks remained stalled.

In the southeastern Kherson region, Russia struck “with artillery, mortars and UAVs,” the regional prosecutor’s office said on social media.

A 42-year-old man died when a drone struck a civilian car, while 16 others — including a teenage boy and three police officers — were wounded in air attacks and artillery shelling, the office said.

In the Chernigiv region, north of the capital Kyiv, Russia launched a ballistic missile attack, according to Dmytro Bryzhynsky, head of the Chernigiv City Military Administration, writing on Telegram.

“As a result of the attack, the premises of an enterprise were damaged. According to preliminary reports, one person was killed,” Mr Bryzhynsky said.

At least nine people were also wounded in strikes on Druzhkivka in the battle-scarred Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, regional official Vadym Filashkin said on social media.

“The city is under constant enemy fire — today is no exception,” Mr Filashkin said, adding that Russia hit Druzhkivka with aerial bombs, damaging two administrative buildings and a private house.

Russia launched more drones at Ukraine in March than in any other month since the 2022 invasion began, an AFP analysis found.

Using daily reports from Ukraine’s air force, the analysis showed that Russia fired at least 6,462 long-range drones at Ukraine last month — nearly 28% more than in February and the second consecutive monthly rise.