At least 3,000 Ethiopian troops are stationed in Somalia through ATMIS, with another 5,000-7,000 Ethiopian soldiers deployed via a bilateral pact. Despite escalating tensions, ATMIS is steadfast in its plan to pull out by December 31, transitioning to a leaner force. As this withdrawal proceeds, the Somali government exudes optimism about handling al-Shabaab, aiming for a new squadron of no more than 10,000 troops focused on securing key urban hubs.
However, Ethiopia asserts it has not received any formal notification from Somalia concerning the peacekeeping troop reduction, signaling a possible communication loophole or diplomatic strain between the two countries.
Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have frayed following Ethiopia’s decision to lease a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline from North Western of Somalia, a region that has declared independence from Somalia. Ethiopia’s prospect of recognizing North Western of Somalia in return for setting up a naval base and trading port there has been denounced as illegal by Mogadishu. This maneuver has led Somalia to call for the full withdrawal of Ethiopian forces by December, with threats to expel the soldiers if the North Western of Somalia port agreement isn’t revoked.
This tension arises amidst Somalia’s broader initiatives to stabilize the region and shift security duties. Recently, Somalia confirmed the deployment of fresh troops from Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi to support post-ATMIS missions, showcasing continued international partnership for regional peace and security.
Yet, not all Somali territories support the central government’s plans. The Southwest State of Somalia opposes Ethiopian troop withdrawal, citing fears about security and stability if these forces leave too hastily.
During Monday’s UNSC meeting, Osman also spotlighted Somalia’s efforts toward inclusive dialogue and consensus on national priorities. This includes preparing for one-person-one-vote elections and reviewing consultation processes. He also noted that a joint technical team from the Somali government and the UN has begun planning the transition of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) to the Country Team.
