Rising Concerns About Political Unrest and the Fragmentation of Somalia’s Federal State
Every four years, an eerie shadow looms over Somalia as elections, instead of heralding a new dawn, often lead to political turmoil and strife. The outcome of these elections should ideally reaffirm the federal government’s authority through peaceful and legitimate processes, yet, more often than not, the opposite occurs. The last election cycle (2021-2022) put the very fabric of the Somali state at risk. Despite this, there was a palpable sense of relief among the populace when newly elected parliamentarians pledged to forsake personal gain for the greater good of Somali society; sadly, this oath was not honored.
Barely a year after this election climaxed, the Somali people found themselves in a fog of dissatisfaction and embarrassment; they felt misrepresented by leaders who seemed consumed by their own interests rather than those of the nation. Many public figures neglected the core principles of democracy, including the upholdment of the rule of law and the protection of citizens’ rights, as well as their involvement in broader national discussions.
Somalia’s political reformation in 2012 aimed to unify its regions and establish a federal government as the legitimate representative of its people, reigniting hopes for a prosperous and peaceful future nurtured by democratically elected leadership. For many, it seemed like a fresh chapter in their nation’s history—a chance to escape past divisions and conflicts.
However, despite significant international backing and immense efforts from Somalis to foster effective leadership, that optimism has withered away. Prevailing anxieties regarding political violence and the disintegration of the federal state persist. The Federal Government and Federal Member States are heavily reliant on international financial support and diplomatic backing, yet progress remains elusive.
Faced with rising dissatisfaction, religious leaders have begun to speak publicly, urging Somali leaders to embrace honesty and fairness in their governance. This was emphasized in Friday congregational sermons, citing sacred texts that condemn hypocrites who promise heaven while delivering anything but.
Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) is quoted in religious traditions highlighting signs of a hypocritical person: lying when speaking, breaking promises, and betraying trust. These sentiments resonate deeply in today’s climate of political deception.
During former President Farmajo’s tenure, ex-President Hassan stood out as a vocal opposition force, championing transparent governance and critiquing Farmajo’s government’s missteps. When re-elected in May 2022, Hassan vowed to serve the Somali people with integrity, focusing on a fair and accountable governance system.
Advised to avoid pitfalls from his prior presidency, Hassan pledged to strengthen Somalia’s democratic institutions and ensure a genuine division of power. He asserted the importance of respecting opposition views and maintaining an independent judiciary.
Yet, soon after assuming office, tales emerged painting Hassan as detached from genuine public discourse, often prioritizing personal interests and displaying little regard for transparency. Critics argue he monopolized power and sidelined important consultative processes. This governance style stokes discontent—both with the public and among regional leaders.
The battle against Al-Shabaab became a focal point of Hassan’s agenda; a vision met with widespread support. The military campaign sought to liberate key Somali regions from militant control, with progress initially slow due to hurdles including political fragmentation and security inefficiencies.
Unfortunately, as the conflict dragged on, resource depletion and operational challenges became evident. While the government could claim some victories, genuine stability remained distant. The absence of cohesive strategies and internal squabbles continued to hamper effective governance.
Crucially, unresolved issues threaten to spiral into future crises. Clashes over constitutional reforms, electoral processes, and inter-regional disagreements pose significant risks to national unity. President Hassan’s ambition to implement a universal voting system by 2026 faces skepticism over its feasibility given the current socio-political climate.
Exacerbating challenges are external tensions and economic constraints. Regional disputes and insecurities, such as tension with Ethiopia, further destabilize the Somali state. To sidestep further political upheaval and societal suffering, robust leadership and cohesive national effort are imperative.
Mohamud M. Uluso, once a prominent figure in Somali economic governance, now provides insights on Somalia’s tumultuous socio-political landscape. [email protected]
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring