The by-elections on Monday, June 21, will be a first election for the Welfare Party, Abiy Ahmed’s party, founded in December 2019. As Ethiopia becomes embroiled in a war and a humanitarian crisis in Tigray, the prime minister is trying to consolidate his grip on power.
The bulbs are visible everywhere in the roundabouts and avenues of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, but they do not illuminate anything. An illuminated light bulb is the symbol chosen by the Welcome Party to lead the first election campaign in its short history. “We had never seen such a display of power in previous polls,” slides a researcher who wishes to remain anonymous. It’s everywhere. “
As important as the formation of the Prime Minister is, it is still a novelty in the Ethiopian political landscape. Abiy Ahmed founded this party, “His party” will say a few, in December 2019, ten days before they move to Oslo in Norway to receive his Nobel Peace Prize. The prize was awarded to him for his peace efforts with the Eritrean neighbor. Described as a peacemaker less than two years ago, Abiy is today a war-torn leader after the humanitarian tragedy caused by his military intervention in the province of Tigray, where 90% of the population now needs food aid.
Driven to the head of government by his comrades in 2018, to represent the compromise, Abiy Ahmed presents himself for the first time as a big favorite this Monday, June 21, during the legislative election. The Prime Minister, in difficulties on the international stage since the beginning of the war in Tigray, strives above all for a strong legitimacy. “The only thing we are sure of in Ethiopia today is that the prosperity party will win the election with flying colors,” a diplomat assured. The rest is unknown! ”
It is difficult to predict the extent of the victory in the absence of a vote and even an exact census of the population. It is also difficult to rule out the hypothesis of a tide of Biltsigina (“prosperity” in Amharic), so much so that it controls all the structures of the state. He also stands alone in the Oromia region, Ethiopia’s largest province, following the boycott of the two largest regional opposition parties, the OLF and the OFC.
“Abiy Ahmed has emerged as an obvious compromise”
To understand the extent of his strangulation, we must return to the transition started by the Ethiopian leader three years ago, in which he announced that he wanted to turn the page to a system of governance that is three decades old and very unpopular. In 1991, when Derg’s military regime fell, an alliance of regional parties under the title Ethiopia’s People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDRPE) emerged. Under its coalition, power actually belongs to the front of the liberation of the people of Tigray (FLPT), a party that is fighting today in the mountains of Tigray. Except that the Tigrayan party will be unanimous against him in Ethiopia, so they will have to decide to relinquish power. “Abiy Ahmed’s origins are not due to any genius or special talent on his part,” reminds CERI researcher at Sciences-Po Paris, Roland Marchal. It has emerged as an obvious compromise after the major nationalist demonstrations in the Oromia and Amhara regions. ”
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Abiy actually presents a perfect profile; both from the old regime and capable of embodying a renewal. This forty, former coalition deputy, colonel in the army and head of the National Cyber Security Agency’s services, is part of the state apparatus. From a Muslim Oromo father and an Orthodox Amhara mother, he is at the crossroads of Ethiopian cultures. He has everything to embody reconciliation after 27 years of authoritarian methods organized by the FLPT.
The Tigrayan party represents the stone in Abiy Ahmed’s shoe as soon as he comes to power. The Tigrayans then control large parts of the economy and almost the entire security apparatus. “The main reason for the creation of the prosperity party is to get rid of FDRPE and thus from the influence of the Tigrayans,” Roland Marchal continues. It is also a way for Abiy Ahmed to be able to appoint trusted lieutenants to decision-making positions and to avoid his work being sabotaged by the FLPT. ”
A united Ethiopia over cultural differences
Goodbye FDRPE, hello prosperity party. Renovation of the façade does not necessarily mean major restructuring. All the old coalition formations join the new party with the exception of the FLPT, which fears that its interests are threatened by the new deal. The leader of the Tigrayan party, Debretsion Gebremichael, will describe this political change as “illegal and reactionary”. The divorce has begun. It will be consumed definitively on November 4, the day of the start of the war between the two actors.
Biltsigina wants to break with the ethnocentric vision that the FLPT has been promoting for almost thirty years and wants to introduce the idea of the Ethiopia-Andine, a united Ethiopia beyond cultural divisions. A real test for the Ethiopian leader while societal conflicts increase dangerously. “The rest of their program is not ready,” assures Girmachew Alemu, a professor of law at the University of Addis Ababa. They have announced major projects on the country’s economy, but it is slow to be realized. And on a memorable theme like land ownership, it’s radio silence. ”
“It is very smart to have used the word Prosperity for his party”
Economic reforms have raised awareness of Abiy Ahmed. The young Prime Minister promises in 2018 a forced liberalization and dynamism in this country’s economy with a strong interventionist tradition, which raises the hopes of large international financial institutions and investors. Three years later, the reform agenda is sluggish, like the latest partial opening of the telecommunications sector ; ambitious, but incomplete.
“It is very smart to have used the word Prosperity for his party, it is a captivating term,” says Girmachew Alemu. It is almost impossible for the other parties to oppose the idea of the nation’s prosperity. “The connotation is not just financial. A member of a Pentecostal church, Abiy Ahmed, is a follower of the “Gospel of Prosperity” that links spiritual and economic health.
“The Evangelist’s speech is a hymn to individual success,” reminds Roland Marchal. The Prime Minister multiplies speeches with the Center for Love, Mutual Aid and Peace. “It is a way to move the debate to the level of values and therefore to be able to offer a discourse on conflicts that does not involve taking a political position,” the researcher specifies. As religious competition intensifies in Ethiopia between the powerful Orthodox Church, Islam, and the new Protestant cults, Abiy Ahmed’s demonstrated faith could give him broad support in the southern part of the country, which is predominantly Pentecostal.
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