Kabul, Afghanistan – Within days, Afghanistan had fallen into the hands of the Taliban, a move that could plunge the Asian nation into possible collapse, after years of civil war that saw even the US military intervene.
After 20 years of the “boring” Afghan war, the United States is expected to end its mission in a few days. But despite the 300,000 Afghan soldiers and police trained by the international community, the Taliban are on the verge of seizing most of the country.
Already, the Taliban have taken control of the capital of the Central and South Asian nation, Kabul, resulting in chaotic scenes of residents trying to flee the country for their own safety. Taliban leaders await the official transfer of power.
Taliban fighters take control of the Afghan presidential palace after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country to Tajikistan or Uzbekistan on Sunday, August 15, 2021.
Residents of Herat and Kandahar say they can’t believe how quickly the two cities fell after the Taliban’s weeks-long efforts to take Afghanistan’s largest cities. “They literally sold us, there was no government resistance,” a Kandahar resident told Al-Jazeera.
The United States has started to evacuate embassy workers, including local staff and their families. The situation in the country remains uncertain as thousands of people dry up their bank accounts for fear of lawlessness under the Taliban.
But at home in Somalia, events are almost linked to those in Afghanistan, as the government depended on the African Union mission forces. [AMISOM], who have held security responsibilities in Somalia for more than a decade.
The forces were closely assisted by American troops, who have since withdrawn. Although their real efforts were to redeploy US troops to Somalia, the US withdrew 700 troops, further weakening security in the country, a move that sparked an escalation of al-Shabaab activity.
With the United States now distant from Somalia, the AMISOM team is also preparing for an imminent exit, a move that will complicate the security fortunes of the Horn of Africa nation. Somali forces have evidently struggled to counter Al-Shabaab, which still controls large swathes of rural areas in central and southern Somalia.
A report released by the United Nations recently established that the Al-Shabaab group collects more taxes than the fragile Somali administration backed by the UN. Although they have been considerably weakened, Al-Shabaab remains a “potential” threat according to the State Department.
The African Union mission has been in Somalia since March 2007. AMISOM has just under 20,000 people and is now looking for a way out. AU experts recently proposed a hybrid AU and UN mission after 2021, with a mix of police (50%), military personnel (35%) and civilians (15%).
By the end of 2021, Somali forces are expected to take the lead in security responsibilities, but are they ready? Security officials say yes, but officials want the AU to align its operations with the Somali-led transition plan, including the readiness of mobile forces and not just at bases, said Harun Maruf, the author of Inside Al-Shabaab.
In terms of numbers, the SNA should have at least 18,000 strong forces excluding special forces and the air force, per 2017 security architecture; plus 32,000 federal and state police, including Coast Guard and Darwish, and 500 other Danab forces in each of the 8 SNA sectors.
The 2017 Security Architecture was designed by the Federal Government and Federal Member States – policy and strategy for the National Security Council; implementation for the regional security council. Relations at the federal and regional levels have stagnated since 2018.
Somalia is currently holding elections, but there are fears that if foreign peacekeepers leave the country, Al-Shabaab militants could be reactivated, a move that could even cause more chaos in the Horn of the Nation nation. ‘Africa. Al-Shabaab tried to overthrow the fragile Somali administration backed by the UN.
“We are aware that AMISOM cannot stay in Somalia indefinitely. Therefore, AMISOM must continue to transfer the responsibility for security to the Somali Security Forces after 2021 and all agreed security agreements must be in line with FGS policies and priorities, ”Amb Osman told the Security Council of the United Nations. ‘UN, Thursday.
Security expert Adan Abdulle believes the country should not be so dependent on foreign troops. According to him, the country should improve its approach not only by changing its strategy but also by employing psychology in the war against Al-Shabaab.
“The mere presence of foreign troops is a force multiplier. The psychological security inherent in AMISOM’s presence in Somalia is often overlooked by Somali commentators and politicians. War is as much a matter of psychology as of any other aspect. fights, “he notes.
AXADLETM
